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What history tells us...

Kaos

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2009, 01:56:58 PM »
Sure, there'll be some "told you so's" and some crow eating.

That's to be expected. What will happen when Chizik bombs out his first season?

You're still tooting the "I was right about Franklin" horn in this very thread...

Nothing will happen.  If I'm right I'm just right.  I would hope that the next time something comes up I'd have a little more gravitas but even that's not a given.

Sure I played the Franklin card out of the gate, but my horror at the debacle he unleashed on Auburn eliminated any satisfaction I had or have at seeing what was coming. I only use it as a bludgeon these days when it's implied, inferred or intended that I don't know what I'm talking about.  I didn't bust anybody's nuts over Franklin because I was sick about it too.  Well, maybe.. I only started busting when the same chowderheads who were talking about Franklinstein and all that silly shit leaped off one wagon and started making Chizik Republic T-shirts. 

Can't change the fact that I was right in that instance.  It's only natural that I'd be less likely to change my stance now because of that.  So I use it as explanation. 

I'm just as quick to bring up the fact that I would have taken Ryan Leaf over Peyton in the draft when that occasion arises. 
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The Prowler

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2009, 02:03:48 PM »
I'm expecting Auburn to go (7-5) or (8-4) and have a Top 10 recruiting class, those are realistic marks.  But, if Auburn goes (9-3) or better and has a Top 5 recruiting class...then yeah, there'll be some hoedown going on, but it won't be on your grave because I'm sure that you'll be right there with us...Hoeing it down.
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RWS

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2009, 02:13:49 PM »
I absolutely refuse to celebrate "baby steps." Did you know he repeated that very phrase the day after I said it while he was speaking to the AU club down here? "We've got to take baby steps." He said that. And that he also said it was going to be a 'long hard road back.'   
The folks in Ames noted that he was always quick to pull out the Obama-speak. He always used "what he had inherited" as an excuse. I think the reason Alabama fans make light of the situation so much, is because we can't believe that AU is that paranoid to get rid of CTT that quickly. Most of our fans saw it as universally stupid to get rid of CTT. Ok, so we tapped that ass one time in 7 years. Outside of that, AU has owned us recently and alot of other teams as well. You guys can't tell me that loss had absolutely nothing to do with his ouster. Had he won that game, I bet he would still be here today. Thats not me being arrogant, thats being logical.

Thats one thing to get rid of CTT if you're going to hire some NFL God or something that has won 50 Super Bowls, or somebody that was a clear step up. In Alabama's case, there is absolutely no question we stepped up a few notches. My cat would have been a step in the right direction. AU went out and flubbed it in the public's eyes. Maybe Chizik can prove everybody wrong on the field. Who knows at this point. All I know is his track record as a head coach isn't that great.

P.S.: Here is a little article that the Iowa State Rivals site had up after Chizik's departure.
http://iowastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=889020
« Last Edit: May 15, 2009, 02:18:31 PM by runswithscissors »
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boartitz

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2009, 02:29:18 PM »
I'm going to pull a Prowler and steal somebody else's research.  This was compiled by somebody on another site and it is a pretty compelling argument for being concerned about the future. 

Alabama:
Mike Dubose 24-23 ; D. Franchione 17-8 ; Mike Shula 26-23 (.554)
Predecessor: Gene Stallings 62-25 (.712)
Years wasted: 10

Oklahoma:
Gary Gibbs 44-23 ; H. Schnellenberger 5-5 ; John Blake 12-22 (.550)
Predecessor: Barry Switzer 157-29 (.837)
Years wasted: 10

USC:
Ted Tollner 26-20 ; Larry Smith 44-25 ; Paul Hackett 19-18 (.586)
Predecessor: McKay / Robinson 231-75 (.755)
Years wasted: 13

Nebraska:
Bill Callahan 27-22 (.551)
Predecessor: Osborne / Solich 313-68 (.822)
Years wasted: 4 and counting

Georgia:
Ray Goff 46-34 ; Jim Donnan 40-19 (.619)
Predecessor: Vince Dooley 201-77 (.723)
Years coasting: 12

Texas:
David McWilliams 31-26 ; John Mackovic 41-28 (.571)
Predecessor: Royal / Akers 253-78 (.764)
Years wasted: 11

Averages:
"New coaches" winning % = .572
Predecessors winning % = .769
Wasted years = 9.3


Adding to this research, however, we should note that Auburn is an exception to this rule:

Auburn:
Tommy Tuberville 85-40 (.680)

Predecessor:
Terry Bowden 47-17-1 (.720)

Predecessor:
Pat Dye 99–39–4 (.711)
We kept a motherfucker for 10 years with a similar record as the flubs you speak of. :suicide:
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Saniflush

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2009, 03:02:32 PM »
I'm expecting Auburn to go (7-5) or (8-4) and have a Top 10 recruiting class, those are realistic marks.  But, if Auburn goes (9-3) or better and has a Top 5 recruiting class...then yeah, there'll be some hoedown going on, but it won't be on your grave because I'm sure that you'll be right there with us...Hoeing it down.

I love hos
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"Hey my friends are the ones that wanted to eat at that shitty hole in the wall that only served bread and wine.  What kind of brick and mud business model is that.  Stick to the cart if that's all you're going to serve.  Then that dude came in with like 12 other people, and some of them weren't even wearing shoes, and the restaurant sat them right across from us. It was gross, and they were all stinky and dirty.  Then dude starts talking about eating his body and drinking his blood...I almost lost it.  That's the last supper I'll ever have there, and I hope he dies a horrible death."

JR4AU

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #25 on: May 15, 2009, 03:23:49 PM »

I made this bed I have to sleep in it.  No denying.  I am not nearly as far from center as you'd think, however.  There's nothing really to grasp. Do I think I'm mainstream in the fact that I don't care for Chizik? At the moment, no.  But I started down this path and I'm not going to be deterred until there's a valid reason for deterrence.  I absolutely refuse to celebrate "baby steps." Did you know he repeated that very phrase the day after I said it while he was speaking to the AU club down here? "We've got to take baby steps." He said that. And that he also said it was going to be a 'long hard road back.'   Do you honestly believe AU is so far gone that it's a long, hard road to where we were, say, A YEAR AGO?  He didn't take over Duke, dammit. But I digress...

Simple question, chizad...

Do you deny that there will be a few trogs (not intended to include you) having a hoedown on my "grave" should Chizik win seven or eight? 

Not chizd, but anybody that does a hoedown over a 7-8 win season is crazy.  As you've said, and I concur, the talent is there for it.  So, it will prove little, beyond the fact that Chizik is capable of meeting expectations when expectations are not that high.  If he pulls a Boden '93, I'm not sure how I'll feel because of how that thing ended.  If he does worse than 7-5 regular season, I may be on the Kaos bandwagon.  I say "may" because things can happen beyond the coahes control.  If we find consistenly decent QB play, and don't suffer an inordinant number of injuries at key positions, ie the OL, then 7-5 should be doable...9-3 with a sprinkling of luck.  If he hits the 7-9 win window, I'll still be in "wait and see" until I at least see his first full recruiting class, and maybe beyind that.  So for me, it won't be success in year one (caveats noted)  if he doesn't win a minimum of 7, and pull in a top 10 class in Feb.  He does that, he'll win a little confidence from me.
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wesfau2

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2009, 03:31:12 PM »
You guys can't tell me that loss had absolutely nothing to do with his ouster.

I think you're close to being correct.  Here is my theory, for what little it is worth:

The power brokers (or at least a very powerful few of them) didn't like Tuberville for whatever reason and they tried to replace him in '03.  We know the fallout from that.  Since that season, Tuberville had won at least 9 games a year and, more importantly, had beaten bama every year.  There was no justifiable reason to fire the man.  2008 gave those disgruntled power brokers their opening to drop the hammer: 5-7 AND a loss to bama.  They finally saw the chance to do what they'd been hoping to do for almost six years and they took it.

It was a stupid knee-jerk reaction to fire Tuberville...unless you're one of those power *cough*Lowder*cough* brokers and, in that case, it was long overdue.
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You can keep a wooden stake in your trunk
On the off-chance that the fairy tales ain't bunk
And Imma keep a bottle of that funk
To get motel parking lot, balcony crunk.

Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2009, 03:46:51 PM »
I think Chizad has it right.  I also believe that a lot of others have it right as well.  Frankly, the reason I went the way of constant fucking with Kaos, was because frankly there was no point in doing anything else.  I just got to the point of "why even bother"? 

Look, beyond the Kaos vs. Chopper thing, anytime a poster gets fucked with by an extreme side ALL THE TIME for doing nothing more than posting information or their opinion, then damn.   80% of what I got called a "Chizdick Sucking Loon" for was nothing more than passing, or posting information along.  My actual opinion basically became irrelevent and moot, if it was even expressed at all.

My actual opinion on Auburn's situation is actually pretty simple.  I was not excited about the hire.  I still think there might have been more popular choices, but I have to respect that whether you think the people in charge are dipshits, they certainly have ten times the info I do, and if they thought Gene Chizik was the slam dunk hire, then for fucksake I'll support his goofy ass.  I'm a lot more interested in seeing Auburn succeed and having fun with Auburn people than having a horrible time ranting and raving and alienating myself. 

There's not ONE person here that would be excited, happy or okay with total failure, so to act as if we're rooting that on by supporting Chizik is simply stupid. 

I think he's done a hell of a job putting together a great staff, and if nothing else, making Auburn relevant in the recruiting scheme of things.  I'd rather just sit back and see, but yes, cheer on the good things when they happen.  If that's by posting info I see that's newsworthy or interesting to the people that would use an Auburn forum, then I'll continue to do it, regardless of the fantastic and colorful names one particular extremist might jerk off to.
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JR4AU

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2009, 03:53:54 PM »
I think you're close to being correct.  Here is my theory, for what little it is worth:

The power brokers (or at least a very powerful few of them) didn't like Tuberville for whatever reason and they tried to replace him in '03.  We know the fallout from that.  Since that season, Tuberville had won at least 9 games a year and, more importantly, had beaten bama every year.  There was no justifiable reason to fire the man.  2008 gave those disgruntled power brokers their opening to drop the hammer: 5-7 AND a loss to bama.  They finally saw the chance to do what they'd been hoping to do for almost six years and they took it.

It was a stupid knee-jerk reaction to fire Tuberville...unless you're one of those power *cough*Lowder*cough* brokers and, in that case, it was long overdue.

Knowing what I know now, and believing it to be true, It was time for Tubs to go.  And Tubs wasn't fired, he chose not to stay under the conditions presented, and he held the ace card in his contract.  Tubs chose to step down instead of being strongarmed in to making changes he wasn't willing to make, but that EVERYONE knew needed to be made. 
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wesfau2

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2009, 03:56:07 PM »
And Tubs wasn't fired, he chose not to stay under the conditions presented

You quit or I'm going to fire you.

Same result.
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You can keep a wooden stake in your trunk
On the off-chance that the fairy tales ain't bunk
And Imma keep a bottle of that funk
To get motel parking lot, balcony crunk.

JR4AU

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #30 on: May 15, 2009, 04:25:37 PM »
You quit or I'm going to fire you.

Same result.

Not how it went down. 
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Greaseyweasel

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2009, 03:03:47 AM »
Well then enlighten us. My sources say that is basically the readers digest condensed version of what happend.
And btw that rivals report......Paul clark had obviously done something that the vast majority of you have not....actually spoken with chizik.
By the time he is gone 5-7 will seem like a dream season.
Put me in the fuck chizik camp.


"Talk about it in ISU Confidential
Finally. After two years of holding my tongue and being a good soldier – or shill as KXNO's Marty & Miller not so inaccurately said – I can put it all out there regarding what I've thought from day one about former Iowa State football coach Gene Chizik.

When Chizik was hired, I told some media colleagues in confidence that his stay at Iowa State would be three years maximum. Either he would fail miserably and be fired or he would have a little success and jump on the very first opportunity that came along to move back south. Now I must admit, even I am surprised at the bizarre turn of events whereby he failed miserably at Iowa State and still got to jump on the very first opportunity that came along to move back south. What the hell Auburn is thinking is anybody's guess. And who cares. Because it just unburdened Iowa State of its most unprepared, overmatched and incompetent head coach of the modern era.

 
 
Gene Chizik won five games in two years, making him one of the worst head coaches in ISU history.
The red flags began popping up almost immediately. When Chizik said that winning is hard everywhere - that it was hard to win at Texas and Auburn, too - you knew he had no comprehension of the task at hand. Chizik's resume is built on winning with superior players, something anybody can do. It's not hard to win at Texas or Auburn; it's hard to lose. When he was given the third-highest assistant coach salary pool in the Big 12 and immediately set about hiring his old buddies for jobs they weren't qualified for at a pay rate twice what he could have gotten them for, you knew he was playing head coach instead of actually being one. When Chizik told the players he inherited that he wasn't going to come down to their level, his legacy of all-hat-no-cattle sound bites was in motion. Few of those players had ever been part of anything as wretched as the two seasons Chizik presided over. He'd have been fortunate to have them bring him up to their level. And when he made the players spend 20 minutes of the first spring practice of 2007 precisely lining up their helmets, you wondered if a real life Captain Queeg hadn't taken over the ISU football program.

Chizik's game day performance speaks for itself and his Saturday state of confusion was boderline comical, if you subscribe to the idea that it's better to laugh than to cry. He might someday have the mental capacity to manage a game as head coach, but it's not there yet. The next opposing coach that Chizik outsmarts will be the first. Without superior athletes, he was rendered impotent as a coach and when all three phases became his ultimate responsibility, he gagged on it. Chizik coordinated defenses at Auburn and Texas; but as a head coach, all he coordinated was disarray. The Cyclone sideline resembled a fire drill more often than not in crucial situations and the number of delay of game penalties and wasted time outs that could be attributed to him and his staff was a career's worth, not two season's worth. The defense was ultimately dumbed down not so the players could understand it, but so the coaches could manage it. And even then they failed.

Would Chizik have eventually been able to win more games at Iowa State and perhaps even get to 6-6 and a bowl game? Maybe, eventually. Had he at least been stubborn enough not to quit, it was possible. After all, he had a brilliant rebuilding plan in place – get better players. Who could fail with a plan like that? But when you consider the games that his Iowa State teams choked away against very beatable opponents these last two autumns, even better players might not have mattered. Because the players he had at Iowa State were collectively good enough to go .500 or better in each of his two seasons in Ames. He and his coaching staff were the problem, not the players. Had the coaches been as good as the players, ISU would have won more games. Even if the players were horrible – say 5-19 horrible – that still means that Chizik and his staff generated a grand total of zero wins with their talent. The players, of course, were not 5-19 horrible, which means the reality is that Chizik and staff cost Iowa State victories as opposed to making them happen.

Iowa State had some good individual talent on its coaching staff. I was impressed throughout the past two seasons by coaches like Tony Petersen, Scott Fountain, Jay Rodgers and Mike Pelton. But when the CEO is swimming in confusion and the coordinators are ten years past their primes and their primes weren't all that good to begin with, there's only so much individual position coaches can do. When word came down that Petersen was losing his job in the staff reorganization, it was clear evidence to me that ability didn't carry much weight in the Cyclone football organization. Instead, clearly, it was a lot more about being part of Chizik's confederate clan than it was about coaching ability.

A two-word phrase will serve as Chizik's epitaph when it comes to his burying his dismal tenure at Iowa State: "firmly entrenched." That phrase was part of his disingenuous explanation regarding comments attributed to him by a Dallas radio show host by way of an Oklahoma State assistant coach. Now, those comments supposedly made by Chizik about being sorry he took the ISU job may have indeed been false. Or they may have been true. Whether they were ever spoken or not doesn't matter, they were definitely being thought. The truth was, Chizik couldn't have been less firmly entrenched at Iowa State. If the Chiziks even bothered to fully unpack, it would be a stunner to me. Never has someone so obviously had an eye on the exit immediately after coming through the entrance.

Chizik's decision to bolt for Auburn – while fine and good in and of itself – is obvious proof that he did regret coming to ISU and that he had quit on the job and given up on accomplishing anything in Ames. And it certainly shows that he was not firmly entrenched. Whether or not he ultimately got the Auburn job was immaterial once he had interviewed. The real story of the last two days was the Chizik was not up to the task and he knew it. As did many of us. It's nothing short of a blessing that Auburn took him off Iowa State's hands. It was quick and painless and just gives ISU a one-year head start on cleaning up the mess that Chizik created. He never hesitated to let people know how much work there was to be done and what a bad situation he stepped into. Well, the next guy will have it a lot worse, thanks entirely to Chizik. But the next guy will probably be a lot better head coach, so it's still a net gain for Iowa State.

Gene Chizik was Plan B for Iowa State. While even that was too high considering the candidates interviewed, it's at least reassuring to know that someone better than him wanted the job in 2006 and was even offered the job, but just couldn't pull the trigger fast enough to take it. ISU settled for Chizik and got what it got. Even though he was packaged and sold as a rock star, he wasn't hired as one. The rock star got away, so Iowa State took the back-up singer. It's Auburn's problem now. While he has a better chance of winning in general there – because he'll have better players – he'll be up against it in a job where so much is riding on one rivalry game a year. Beating Alabama trumps all else at Auburn and Nick Saban will probably floss with Gene Chizik on an annual basis. It's a coaching mismatch of epic proportions. I mean, if Mike Sanford and Tom Amstutz and Doug Martin hand you your lunch with inferior talent, what's Saban going to do with superior talent? When the clock ticks down to 0:00 on future Iron Bowls, there will be nothing left to do but I.D. the Auburn bodies.

Good luck, Auburn, you'll need it."
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You've got to learn to stand for something


or you'll fall for anything.

The Prowler

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #32 on: May 16, 2009, 03:34:47 AM »
Retarded Monkey Lost In The Ural Mountains

Ingredients
2 oz. Liqueur, banana
2 oz. Sour Apple Pucker
2 oz. Vodka, pear
 
Mixing Instructions
Shake ingredients in a cocktail shaker with ice. Strain into glass. It has a smoother taste than you'd expect.

Nice addition bammer.
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"Patriotism and popularity are the beaten paths for power and tyranny." Good, no worries about tyranny w/ Trump

"Alabama's Special Teams unit is made up of Special Ed students." - Daniel Tosh

"The HUNH does cause significant Health and Safety issues, Health issues for the opposing fans and Safety issues for the opposing coaches." - AU AD Jay Jacobs

Jumbo

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #33 on: May 16, 2009, 04:31:48 AM »
Nice addition bammer.
I think you should use 99 Bananas for the 99 proof kick.
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boartitz

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #34 on: May 16, 2009, 06:47:26 AM »
We had a Boise State guy call Houston Nutt a used car salesman right after we hired him. Sour grapes.
Turns out he was right.
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Greaseyweasel

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #35 on: May 17, 2009, 10:46:51 PM »
pigtit, I haven't seen where he actually did a whole hell of a lot except occaisionally grab a big win. No offense but Nuttless has never impressed me to much. His downhill slide @ Ole Miss will begin this year just as it has most eveywhere he has ever been.
Unless he pimps off a coaching slot for some players he has never really done anything.
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You've got to learn to stand for something


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The Prowler

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #36 on: May 18, 2009, 02:48:08 AM »
pigtit, I haven't seen where he actually did a whole hell of a lot except occaisionally grab a big win. No offense but Nuttless has never impressed me to much. His downhill slide @ Ole Miss will begin this year just as it has most eveywhere he has ever been.
Unless he pimps off a coaching slot for some players he has never really done anything.
And some posters shouldn't post in the football forum, lack of knowledge and all that.
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"Patriotism and popularity are the beaten paths for power and tyranny." Good, no worries about tyranny w/ Trump

"Alabama's Special Teams unit is made up of Special Ed students." - Daniel Tosh

"The HUNH does cause significant Health and Safety issues, Health issues for the opposing fans and Safety issues for the opposing coaches." - AU AD Jay Jacobs

Greaseyweasel

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #37 on: May 18, 2009, 06:35:01 AM »
And yet you are still constantly pecking away at those keys prowler. Just because my opinion does not jive with those of certain other posters and I'm not afraid to call a shitty hire and over inflated coaches shitty hires and over inflated coaches does not mean that I do not know what I am talking about.
This toipc is called "What history tells us" which is because history is a pretty good indicator of futore actions. Chiziks history is to find a way to lose in a mickey mouse league so his future prediction is that he will find an easy way to lose in the SEC west. Nutt's history is to take a team exceed expectations the first year and then begin a slow slide to mediocrity in the 2nd.
History is fact and a pretty good indicator of future trends.
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Saniflush

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Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #38 on: May 18, 2009, 07:54:03 AM »
pigtit, I haven't seen where he actually did a whole hell of a lot except occaisionally grab a big win. No offense but Nuttless has never impressed me to much. His downhill slide @ Ole Miss will begin this year just as it has most eveywhere he has ever been.
Unless he pimps off a coaching slot for some players he has never really done anything.

This we agree on.
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"Hey my friends are the ones that wanted to eat at that shitty hole in the wall that only served bread and wine.  What kind of brick and mud business model is that.  Stick to the cart if that's all you're going to serve.  Then that dude came in with like 12 other people, and some of them weren't even wearing shoes, and the restaurant sat them right across from us. It was gross, and they were all stinky and dirty.  Then dude starts talking about eating his body and drinking his blood...I almost lost it.  That's the last supper I'll ever have there, and I hope he dies a horrible death."

Re: What history tells us...
« Reply #39 on: May 18, 2009, 11:44:53 AM »
Nutt's history is to take a team exceed expectations the first year and then begin a slow slide to mediocrity in the 2nd.

     You have kind of a funny definition of mediocrity.  HDN is 6-5 against your Tigers.  Generally I wouldn't call someone mediocre when they have a winning record against my team, but that's just me.  Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we have Petrino, but HDN isn't the goof that a lot of people, including a lot of Arkansas fans, seem to think he is.
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