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Cruitin'

Snaggletiger

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Cruitin'
« on: May 11, 2022, 10:10:06 AM »
Long, but hey, it's the off season.  And nobody is on the board reading this anyway.  Copy/pasta from Nathan King at Aubren Undercover.



If you want to project who’s going to be contending in the College Football Playoff or winning a conference championship, simply scroll back two or three recruiting cycles.

Rarely are the programs that routinely bring in top-10 classes not in the Playoff hunt once those signees get a couple years of development, nor are the top recruiting teams in each conference not the ones regularly competing to win their respective conference crowns. Sustainable and talented programs are built — and championships are won — during phone calls and recruiting visits. A solid haul in the transfer portal is also becoming more important.

Take Alabama and Georgia — the two teams that met in this past season’s national title game — for example. In 2019 — the first year of the current four-year averages for a variety of data points — they had the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 overall classes, respectively, per the 247Sports rankings. The teams with the highest Blue-Chip Ratio every year — percentage of four- and five-star recruits on a roster compared to two- and three-stars — are the ones winning their conference and making the Playoff, most of the time.

He are last year's Blue-Chip Ratios from the one who devised the formula, 247Sports's Bud Elliot.

Of course, they are plenty of exceptions here. Coaching — both poor coaching and coaching changes — plus major injuries and other factors can lead to subpar seasons for even the most talented or programs. LSU and Florida were both in the top 8 in BCR last season, and both fired its head coach. Texas was No. 7 in terms of blue-chip talent but finished 5-7 in Steve Sarkisian's first season.

And some teams are stuck in murderous conferences — or divisions, in Auburn’s case — with a slew of other talented teams around them, or a perennial Playoff contender who routinely wins the conference and streamlines itself into the final four rankings.

Even so, for a program to fundamentally put itself in championship contention each year, it has to recruit as well or better than its peers. There will always be exceptions, but the smarter tactic is to follow the consistent formula of success, not attempt to be the once-in-a-while anomaly.


Generally, teams’ talent is gauged based on their past four recruiting classes. That accounts for difference-making seniors and developing, superstar underclassmen all the same. With the 2022 class nearly complete for all programs — minus transfers, which don’t count toward a team’s recruiting ranking — we can more effectively peek at which rosters are most consistently made up of big-time recruits versus those that aren’t.

Auburn’s 2022 recruiting haul — the first full class for Bryan Harsin, after his Tigers went 6-7 in Year 1 — is ranked No. 21 nationally in the rankings and No. 9 in the SEC. After Auburn fell outside the top 12 of the national recruiting rankings last year for the first time since 2009, it's now outside the top 20 for the second straight cycle.

The Tigers are also dealing with a current net loss of 11 scholarship players in the transfer portal, though Harsin and his staff are looking to fill a few positions of need via the transfer market during the month of May.

From a four-year recruiting standpoint, just how talented is Auburn’s roster compared to the 13 other SEC programs? Keep in mind that the recruiting averages below do not account for transfers and NFL draft departures, rather they are a general look at each program’s recruiting health and consistency.

This breakdown will be the first in a five-part look at the SEC’s talent in 2022, and how Auburn compares — including today's look at four-year recruiting averages, as well as Blue-Chip Ratio, returning production, transfer numbers and NFL draft success.

14. VANDERBILT (AVERAGE RANK: 51.3)
• 2019: 58th

• 2020: 53rd

• 2021: 48th

• 2022: 46th

Last cycle’s four-year average: 50


13. SOUTH CAROLINA (AVERAGE RANK: 35.3)
• 2019: 21st

• 2020: 19th

• 2021: 78th

• 2022: 23rd

Last cycle’s four-year average: 34


12. MISSOURI (AVERAGE RANK: 33.5)
• 2019: 37th

• 2020: 51st

• 2021: 29th

• 2022: 17th

Last cycle’s four-year average: 40


11. KENTUCKY (AVERAGE RANK: 27.5)
• 2019: 34th

• 2020: 25th

• 2021: 33rd

• 2022: 18th

Last cycle’s four-year average: 32.3


10. MISSISSIPPI STATE (AVERAGE RANK: 27)
• 2019: 24th

• 2020: 28th

• 2021: 25th

• 2022: 31st

Last cycle’s four-year average: 26


9. ARKANSAS (AVERAGE RANK: 24.8)
• 2019: 23rd

• 2020: 30th

• 2021: 24th

• 2022: 22nd

Last cycle’s four-year average: 30.5


8. OLE MISS (AVERAGE RANK: 22.5)
• 2019: 22nd

• 2020: 34th

• 2021: 18th

• 2022: 16th

Last cycle’s four-year average: 26.5


7. AUBURN (AVERAGE RANK: 16.5)
• 2019: 11th

• 2020: 7th

• 2021: 27th

• 2022: 21st

Last cycle’s four-year average: 14.3


6. TENNESSEE (AVERAGE RANK: 15.8)
• 2019: 13th

• 2020: 10th

• 2021: 16th

• 2022: 24th

Last cycle’s four-year average: 15


5. FLORIDA (AVERAGE RANK: 12.8)
• 2019: 9th

• 2020: 9th

• 2021: 13th

• 2022: 20th

Last cycle’s four-year average: 11


T4. TEXAS A&M (AVERAGE RANK: 4.5)
• 2019: 4th

• 2020: 6th

• 2021: 7th

• 2022: 1st

Last cycle’s four-year average: 8.5


T4. LSU (AVERAGE RANK: 4.5)
• 2019: 5th

• 2020: 4th

• 2021: 3rd

• 2022: 6th

Last cycle’s four-year average: 6.8


2. GEORGIA (AVERAGE RANK: 2.5)
• 2019: 2nd

• 2020: 1st

• 2021: 4th

• 2022: 3rd

Last cycle’s four-year average: 2


1. ALABAMA (AVERAGE RANK: 1.5)
• 2019: 1st

• 2020: 2nd

• 2021: 1st

• 2022: 2nd

Last cycle’s four-year average: 2.3


Some data points from comparing 2022 recruiting numbers to last offseason, as well as how programs are trending on the recruiting trail:

• Auburn was jumped by Tennessee for the No. 6 spot, as the Tigers replaced their 2018 class (No. 12 nationally) with the 2022 haul (No. 21). The Volunteers also fell in terms of their four-year average, but only have one class outside the top 20 as compared to back-to-back for Auburn.

• Auburn's No. 7 class from 2020 continues to carry a lot of positive weight for the program's recruiting averages. Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M account for 16 of the conference's 20 top-10 classes over the past four years; Florida owns two, while Tennessee landed at No. 10 in 2020.

• Auburn is one of four teams to drop one spot from last year, joining South Carolina, LSU and Georgia. Mississippi State was the only program to fall multiple spots (No. 8 to No. 10).

• Harsin's first full-year recruiting class (2022) ranks No. 21 nationally. Over the past four cycles, there have been eight other SEC head coaches who entered their second season with their respective program. Harsin's is the third-best: Clark Lea's 2022 class is No. 46; Eli Drinkwitz's 2021 class was No. 29; Mike Leach's 2021 class was No. 25; Josh Heupel's 2022 class is No. 24; Sam Pittman's 2021 class was No. 24; and Shane Beamer's 2022 class is No. 23.

5
COMMENTS
• Only Dan Mullen (No. 9 in 2019) and Jimbo Fisher (No. 4 in 2019) had better classes than Harsin in their first full offseason with their programs.

• Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Missouri all moved up one spot.

• Despite moving up one cycle and leaving 2018 behind, not a single coach's recruiting efforts were eliminated. In 2019, the SEC returned all 14 of its head coaches.

• Alabama had an uncharacteristically low finish in 2018 (No. 5). But with that class pushed out of the four-year cycle, the Crimson Tide now own the top spot, after claiming either the No. 1 or No. 2 class nationally in each of the past four cycles.

• Despite the most talented recruiting class ever this year, per the 247Sports Composite, Texas A&M is tied with LSU for the No. 4 spot, with a rolling average of 4.5.
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wesfau2

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2022, 11:57:56 AM »
4 years is a weird window.  Especially given the fucked up '20 season.  Compound that with a coaching change and I don't think you can draw any conclusions about any of this shit vis a vis Auburn.
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Kaos

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2022, 01:08:37 PM »
4 years is a weird window.  Especially given the fucked up '20 season.  Compound that with a coaching change and I don't think you can draw any conclusions about any of this shit vis a vis Auburn.

You can.  You just refuse to see it. 

There is no energy, no excitement, no momentum.  It's not going to end well.  Not only is Harsin a bad fit for Auburn, he's a bad fit for the SEC.  In whatever time he has left, we will fall behind Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida, and maybe Kentucky/Arkansas/South Carolina in recruiting. We're already trailing Alabama, UGA, LSU, A&M. I think we fall in line with State, but even Leach is selling a better package.  Thank God for Vandy and Mizzou, right?

Pretend it's whatever you want it to be.  I'll be around in a year or two when you flatly refuse to acknowledge just how fucked up wrong you were.... (see multiple Biden threads for reference)...and simply ignore the questions.

I don't like being right.  But I usually am.
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Snaggletiger

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2022, 02:36:52 PM »
This is just my opinion based off the articles I've read and things I've heard.  I don't think Bryman Haskins had a clue what it takes to run a successful program in this league, from a recruiting standpoint.  I believe Boise pretty much sold itself in that conference, and that area of the country, and the approach to recruiting 2* and 3* players was vastly different to the SEC.  Even Gus, who never had a class below #12, had what it took, for the most part, to land solid talent across the board.  I imagine his time as OC at Auburn opened his eyes to that process.

Having said that, I really like what I've been seeing these past couple of months.  It appears Coach Hatpins woke up and is taking a whole different approach.  Their goal is to visit all the schools in Alabama.  Auburn is getting their name called on the top 5 lists of many big time recruits.  They had 3 coaches yesterday, go visit this training facility in Montgomery, where two of their top targets from Carver work out.  They really seem to be targeting their needs when you see the offers players are getting.

Even though they were cheating on a Saban level before NIL, Kirby was right when he took that jab at Mullen. If you don't recruit and get the big time players in this league, you don't win.  One thing I do know, is Hartwin is serious about developing players from a physical and mental aspect.  There were some really questionable things that happened on the field last year (MSU, Sakerlina, Bama) but those can be worked out.  I'm really focused on what he and his staff do recruiting-wise this year.  If they get it back at a top 10 level, I think he's on his way.  If we have another 20th or below class, he doesn't stand a chance.   
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wesfau2

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2022, 05:39:16 PM »
This is just my opinion based off the articles I've read and things I've heard.  I don't think Bryman Haskins had a clue what it takes to run a successful program in this league, from a recruiting standpoint.  I believe Boise pretty much sold itself in that conference, and that area of the country, and the approach to recruiting 2* and 3* players was vastly different to the SEC.  Even Gus, who never had a class below #12, had what it took, for the most part, to land solid talent across the board.  I imagine his time as OC at Auburn opened his eyes to that process.

Having said that, I really like what I've been seeing these past couple of months.  It appears Coach Hatpins woke up and is taking a whole different approach.  Their goal is to visit all the schools in Alabama.  Auburn is getting their name called on the top 5 lists of many big time recruits.  They had 3 coaches yesterday, go visit this training facility in Montgomery, where two of their top targets from Carver work out.  They really seem to be targeting their needs when you see the offers players are getting.

Even though they were cheating on a Saban level before NIL, Kirby was right when he took that jab at Mullen. If you don't recruit and get the big time players in this league, you don't win.  One thing I do know, is Hartwin is serious about developing players from a physical and mental aspect.  There were some really questionable things that happened on the field last year (MSU, Sakerlina, Bama) but those can be worked out.  I'm really focused on what he and his staff do recruiting-wise this year.  If they get it back at a top 10 level, I think he's on his way.  If we have another 20th or below class, he doesn't stand a chance.

I think this is pretty much spot on.
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Kaos

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2022, 09:53:18 PM »
I think this is pretty much spot on.

Hope you're right.
(hint? you're not)
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Snaggletiger

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2022, 10:18:29 AM »
Auburn picks up safety, Craig McDonald, from Iowa State through the port hole. 


Note to Breland Hartlinz:  We don't need DB's.  We have DB's.  There are a couple of other VERY pressing needs.

I'll let you think about those.
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Buzz Killington

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2022, 10:34:39 AM »
Auburn picks up safety, Craig McDonald, from Iowa State through the port hole. 


Note to Breland Hartlinz:  We don't need DB's.  We have DB's.  There are a couple of other VERY pressing needs.

I'll let you think about those.
So, naturally we will find at least 2 more DBs in the portal this week.
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Snaggletiger

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2022, 10:57:09 AM »
So, naturally we will find at least 2 more DBs in the portal this week.

Hope so.  We need DB's.
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wesfau2

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2022, 11:16:20 AM »
Auburn picks up safety, Craig McDonald, from Iowa State through the port hole. 


Note to Breland Hartlinz:  We don't need DB's.  We have DB's.  There are a couple of other VERY pressing needs.

I'll let you think about those.

Agree that we're sufficiently staffed at the position. 

Sunny take: kid is huge 6'3" 210, 3.3 gpa, 3 years to play, can grow into an LB or provide matchup equality against all the giant athletic TEs that are suddenly the norm.

Gloomy take: Coach knows the DLine isn't going to get any push, so he's loading up the backfield for lots of rotation.
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Snaggletiger

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2022, 11:27:19 AM »
Agree that we're sufficiently staffed at the position. 

Sunny take: kid is huge 6'3" 210, 3.3 gpa, 3 years to play, can grow into an LB or provide matchup equality against all the giant athletic TEs that are suddenly the norm.

Gloomy take: Coach knows the DLine isn't going to get any push, so he's loading up the backfield for lots of rotation.

I like our D-line. We could certainly use a couple more bodies on the edge, but the starters are damn good, in Hall and Leota.  Interior-wise, we've got decent numbers and plenty of size.  Colby Wooden and Marcus Harris are both studs. 
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wesfau2

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2022, 12:14:53 PM »
I like our D-line. We could certainly use a couple more bodies on the edge, but the starters are damn good, in Hall and Leota.  Interior-wise, we've got decent numbers and plenty of size.  Colby Wooden and Marcus Harris are both studs.

I do, too.  Buuuuuuuuuuuut, not a lot of bodies.  Especially on the edge.
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Kaos

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2022, 01:37:16 PM »
On a flight yesterday with a DL from Ole Miss.  Big stupid white kid. 

His take is that the AU O-line is soft and not well coached.  Said last year there was a lot of offensive talent, but it can't overcome the OL deficiencies.

Also said they'd be better this year without Corrall.  He was not beloved in the lockerroom like the media played it. 

Said losing to an AU team they thought they were far better than was the lowest point of the season for them.  Felt like they should have won. 

**Correction.  I thought he said DL.  He's a big stupid white offensive lineman.  We had a 9-hour unexpected layover and people were making conversation.  He said lots of stuff about lots of teams, etc.  Looked him up just now. 
« Last Edit: May 16, 2022, 01:48:29 PM by Kaos »
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WiregrassTiger

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2022, 09:19:29 AM »
On a flight yesterday with a DL from Ole Miss.  Big stupid white kid. 

His take is that the AU O-line is soft and not well coached.  Said last year there was a lot of offensive talent, but it can't overcome the OL deficiencies.

Also said they'd be better this year without Corrall.  He was not beloved in the lockerroom like the media played it. 

Said losing to an AU team they thought they were far better than was the lowest point of the season for them.  Felt like they should have won. 

**Correction.  I thought he said DL.  He's a big stupid white offensive lineman.  We had a 9-hour unexpected layover and people were making conversation.  He said lots of stuff about lots of teams, etc.  Looked him up just now.
would you have said “big stupid black kid” if he were black?

Never mind. I just answered my own question. I know that you would not have.

You would have used the N word.
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Buzz Killington

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2022, 09:32:22 AM »
would you have said “big stupid black kid” if he were black?

Never mind. I just answered my own question. I know that you would not have.

You would have used the N word.
Nefarious?
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Snaggletiger

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2022, 09:53:40 AM »
I do, too.  Buuuuuuuuuuuut, not a lot of bodies.  Especially on the edge.

We could certainly use a couple more bodies on the edge,

I don't know if you noticed that part of my post above.  Thought I'd point it out just in case.


Otherwise, we're in good shape on the interior.

Marcus Harris  6'3"  294

Colby Wooden 6'5"  284

Zykevious Walker  6'4"  304

Marquis Burks  6'3"  302

Jeffrey M'ba 6'6"  318 (#1 JUCO D-lineman)

Jayson Jones  6'6"  328 (Oregon transfer)

Marquis Robinson 6'3"  310

The only guy out of that bunch that doesn't have any real experience is Robinson, who only saw limited playing time against FUGA last year.  But, we had a lot of guys in the rotation already, and for whatever reason, Harbinz didn't put freshmen on the field.  Only 2, J Hunter and Landon King, burned a year. 
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Kaos

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2022, 09:55:48 AM »
Auburn picks up safety, Craig McDonald, from Iowa State through the port hole. 


Note to Breland Hartlinz:  We don't need DB's.  We have DB's.  There are a couple of other VERY pressing needs.

I'll let you think about those.

Harlin's actions in the portal remind me of my mom at the grocery store.  Hmm... do we have any beets? Better buy a few cans just in case. 

Meanwhile we are out of bread, peanut butter, lunch meat and cereal. 
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Snaggletiger

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2022, 09:58:59 AM »
On a flight yesterday with a DL from Ole Miss.  Big stupid white kid. 

His take is that the AU O-line is soft and not well coached.  Said last year there was a lot of offensive talent, but it can't overcome the OL deficiencies.

Also said they'd be better this year without Corrall.  He was not beloved in the lockerroom like the media played it. 

Said losing to an AU team they thought they were far better than was the lowest point of the season for them.  Felt like they should have won. 

**Correction.  I thought he said DL.  He's a big stupid white offensive lineman.  We had a 9-hour unexpected layover and people were making conversation.  He said lots of stuff about lots of teams, etc.  Looked him up just now.

No doubt our O-line is the weak link.  But he's full of shit.  Auburn was in total control of that game from the opening snap and should have blown their doors in.  However, in looking back, that was kind of the start of teams seemingly figuring Bobo (Or Harpin) out.  We started fast in a lot of games down the stretch, then spent the second half of games going 3 and out the rest of the way.
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wesfau2

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2022, 10:12:47 AM »
We could certainly use a couple more bodies on the edge,

I don't know if you noticed that part of my post above.  Thought I'd point it out just in case.


Otherwise, we're in good shape on the interior.

Marcus Harris  6'3"  294

Colby Wooden 6'5"  284

Zykevious Walker  6'4"  304

Marquis Burks  6'3"  302

Jeffrey M'ba 6'6"  318 (#1 JUCO D-lineman)

Jayson Jones  6'6"  328 (Oregon transfer)

Marquis Robinson 6'3"  310

The only guy out of that bunch that doesn't have any real experience is Robinson, who only saw limited playing time against FUGA last year.  But, we had a lot of guys in the rotation already, and for whatever reason, Harbinz didn't put freshmen on the field.  Only 2, J Hunter and Landon King, burned a year.

That reassures me. 

I don't know where you put this kid, but based on his measurables alone, I want him:

https://twitter.com/Ricowalker15/status/1526546551300145152
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wesfau2

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Re: Cruitin'
« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2022, 10:57:52 AM »
Working the 305 like Pitbull.  I like it.

https://twitter.com/EzekielMarcelin/status/1526379054093443074


https://twitter.com/begreat_mari/status/1526335040745000962


I'd put these in the recruiting forum, but fuck it.  There's no traffic anywhere anyway.
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