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Its not Nix, unless it is

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Its not Nix, unless it is
« on: October 11, 2021, 07:35:52 AM »
This loss (or that loss or the other one) isn’t on Nix.  He played hard.  He just didn’t have an offensive line, or the defense didn’t get stops or his receivers sucked or he was out of hair product. 

Heard it repeatedly. And maybe there’s some merit to it.  But it’s not entirely true.

He’s not a good quarterback.  He can’t see the field.  Won’t step up in the pocket.  First instinct is to spin backwards and run around.

I know it.  I see it.  And finally a clear and obvious example.

https://mobile.twitter.com/_JHokanson/status/1447269685016375297?t=MeaxfkJdfqrrxDPlLjkfug&s=19

One step forward into a pocket that’s fairly well formed and he’s got a receiver who has his man beaten with a stop and go move.  Nope.  Flinch.  Spin. Duck. Dodge. Flop.  No easy TD.  Loss of yards.

This is why the running game has dried up. Nobody is concerned with nix beating them over the top.  Send 8, send 9.

I like the kid.  I think he plays hard.  But he’s never going to get any better. 
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GH2001

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2021, 09:57:56 AM »
This loss (or that loss or the other one) isn’t on Nix.  He played hard.  He just didn’t have an offensive line, or the defense didn’t get stops or his receivers sucked or he was out of hair product. 

Heard it repeatedly. And maybe there’s some merit to it.  But it’s not entirely true.

He’s not a good quarterback.  He can’t see the field.  Won’t step up in the pocket.  First instinct is to spin backwards and run around.

I know it.  I see it.  And finally a clear and obvious example.

https://mobile.twitter.com/_JHokanson/status/1447269685016375297?t=MeaxfkJdfqrrxDPlLjkfug&s=19

One step forward into a pocket that’s fairly well formed and he’s got a receiver who has his man beaten with a stop and go move.  Nope.  Flinch.  Spin. Duck. Dodge. Flop.  No easy TD.  Loss of yards.

This is why the running game has dried up. Nobody is concerned with nix beating them over the top.  Send 8, send 9.

I like the kid.  I think he plays hard.  But he’s never going to get any better.

Bottom WR had safety help who was watching Bo very closely. WR was sandwiched between the DB and the Safety. Top WR didn't have a step until the scrambling had started.

I think the bigger picture here some fans are missing is that Bo is A problem, not THE problem or the totality of it anyway. One of many on this team. For every mistake he makes (and he does make them no doubt) - I see the WRs make 2-3, I see the OL make 3-4, same with the front 4 on pass rush. Our secondary doesn't look good. Now Tank looks a half step slow. This whole team looks discombobulated most of the time. The talent level across our starting 22 is avg. Some of the guys are elite talent - Monday, McCreary, Tank, McClain, Owen P. But most are not.

There is no easy fix here. It is going to take a while to right this. And Auburn fans are about to have their patience tested with Harsin....his next 2 years of incoming talent will make or break him at Auburn. Taking off the rose glasses? Recruiting is not good right now. Harsin is having issues making inroads. Its not a time to panic but I thought it would have picked up by now. He's going to have to hit the transfuntioner portal HARD, recruit some super JUCO guys and perhaps take advantage of misfortune at other schools to steal some good ones (FSU, LSU, etc). We also need to beat the hell out of teams not named GA, Bama and perhaps Aggie. We need to show recruits that when we have equal talent across the field, that our system is better - we just need to talent. That will be critical against OM, MSU, Arky, SC.

This is similar to 1998/99 when Tubs came in with that hodge podge roster Tot left. And its for the exact same reason - lazy and inept recruiting. Gus didn't recruit for "need". And 2-3 years of that is now starting to rear its head in an ugly way.

Nix has flaws in his game. And none of that is caused by the personnel deficiencies around him - but they are sure as hell amplified by it. The QB is the most visible person on the field thus they are gonna take the heat when shit goes south. Auburn has LOTS of issues right now though other than Bo.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2021, 11:02:17 AM by GH2001 »
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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2021, 10:25:56 AM »
All Verts, PA Boot, Sail, Switches, checkdowns, and Dagger saw the most tries through the air for Auburn. IZ Reads combined for the most the reps but were limited to a 3.1 Y/A. Thanks to 5 combined explosive plays, Switches and Verts gained the most

https://twitter.com/SEC_StatCat/status/1447563526109794305

Stat talk and graphics behind the link.
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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2021, 10:53:35 AM »
WOTS is "the fix" will come in the form of a new OL coach and new OC in the offseason. Supposedly Friend and Bobo are not "meshing" with the Boise crew and the product on the field is this muddled, sandlot mess of an offense. The OL is not that improved from last year and the run game is gone save a few chunk plays.

I have no idea how the next four games in five weeks go for us (@Arkansas, (bye), Ole Miss, @TAMU, Miss. St.). We could win each of them and we could lose them all, a couple embarrassingly if we are not careful.

I think Mason is doing some good work with the defense. They are just exposed being on the field so much and with no points support from the other side, they wear down or give in to their deficiencies.

Making a bowl seems a long way off at this time. 
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GH2001

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2021, 11:05:43 AM »
WOTS is "the fix" will come in the form of a new OL coach and new OC in the offseason. Supposedly Friend and Bobo are not "meshing" with the Boise crew and the product on the field is this muddled, sandlot mess of an offense. The OL is not that improved from last year and the run game is gone save a few chunk plays.

I have no idea how the next four games in five weeks go for us (@Arkansas, (bye), Ole Miss, @TAMU, Miss. St.). We could win each of them and we could lose them all, a couple embarrassingly if we are not careful.

I think Mason is doing some good work with the defense. They are just exposed being on the field so much and with no points support from the other side, they wear down or give in to their deficiencies.

Making a bowl seems a long way off at this time.

We have zero depth. Thats the biggest difference in us and the GA/AGGIE/BAMA's of the conference at the moment. Not that our starting 22 is much better either but its formidable enough to stay in most games for 2-3 quarters. The obvious TALENT difference in the 1st string with Auburn vs those teams is the OL, DL and WRs. OL and DL is also the main focal point of where Mark Stoops has instilled his system up in Lexington. As you can see its taken a while but he has that team playing solid just based off line play.
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The Six

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2021, 11:17:27 AM »
We have zero depth. Thats the biggest difference in us and the GA/AGGIE/BAMA's of the conference at the moment. Not that our starting 22 is much better either but its formidable enough to stay in most games for 2-3 quarters. The obvious TALENT difference in the 1st string with Auburn vs those teams is the OL, DL and WRs. OL and DL is also the main focal point of where Mark Stoops has instilled his system up in Lexington. As you can see its taken a while but he has that team playing solid just based off line play.

Agree with this. This game is about blocking and tackling and we are poor in both areas right now.
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wesfau2

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2021, 11:17:49 AM »
Bo Nix's pass chart vs. UGA

7.2 ADOT
80.8% Adj Comp
71.1% Accuracy
71.3% Depth Adj Acc
34.2% Success
10.5% Explosive
15.8% Screen+RPO
15.8% Throwaway
15.8% Drop
18.4% Uncatchable
39.5% Pressure

missed some guys but otherwise played well with a few dimes

https://twitter.com/SEC_StatCat/status/1447570122818920449
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wesfau2

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2021, 11:42:27 AM »
 Bo Nix’s completion % vs. UGA: 53.8%
- Bo Nix’s adjusted completion % vs. UGA, per PFF: 87.5% (!)


https://twitter.com/JFergusonAU/status/1447552384369106945
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Buzz Killington

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2021, 11:44:17 AM »
Bo Nix’s completion % vs. UGA: 53.8%
- Bo Nix’s adjusted completion % vs. UGA, per PFF: 87.5% (!)


https://twitter.com/JFergusonAU/status/1447552384369106945
I wonder how they graded the piss missiles he threw at Shivers swinging out from the backfield, including the tipped int?  Those wouldn't have been caught by most backs.
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Kaos

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2021, 12:11:22 PM »
Bottom WR had safety help who was watching Bo very closely. WR was sandwiched between the DB and the Safety. Top WR didn't have a step until the scrambling had started.

I think the bigger picture here some fans are missing is that Bo is A problem, not THE problem or the totality of it anyway. One of many on this team. For every mistake he makes (and he does make them no doubt) - I see the WRs make 2-3, I see the OL make 3-4, same with the front 4 on pass rush. Our secondary doesn't look good. Now Tank looks a half step slow. This whole team looks discombobulated most of the time. The talent level across our starting 22 is avg. Some of the guys are elite talent - Monday, McCreary, Tank, McClain, Owen P. But most are not.

There is no easy fix here. It is going to take a while to right this. And Auburn fans are about to have their patience tested with Harsin....his next 2 years of incoming talent will make or break him at Auburn. Taking off the rose glasses? Recruiting is not good right now. Harsin is having issues making inroads. Its not a time to panic but I thought it would have picked up by now. He's going to have to hit the transfuntioner portal HARD, recruit some super JUCO guys and perhaps take advantage of misfortune at other schools to steal some good ones (FSU, LSU, etc). We also need to beat the hell out of teams not named GA, Bama and perhaps Aggie. We need to show recruits that when we have equal talent across the field, that our system is better - we just need to talent. That will be critical against OM, MSU, Arky, SC.

This is similar to 1998/99 when Tubs came in with that hodge podge roster Tot left. And its for the exact same reason - lazy and inept recruiting. Gus didn't recruit for "need". And 2-3 years of that is now starting to rear its head in an ugly way.

Nix has flaws in his game. And none of that is caused by the personnel deficiencies around him - but they are sure as hell amplified by it. The QB is the most visible person on the field thus they are gonna take the heat when shit goes south. Auburn has LOTS of issues right now though other than Bo.

The bottom receiver, yes.  Not arguing that point.

But Nix was staring at the top guy.  The DB had committed his hips to the stop route.  If Nix knew it was a stop and go (which he should have) and if he saw the DB commit while he was still standing completely alone with nobody near him (and he should have seen that) all he had to do was take one step into the pocket and risk getting hit to deliver a ball to a receiver that would have three-five yard separation by the time the DB turned.  There was no safety help to that side. 

It's a throw a quarterback should make.  It's a throw I saw the A&M quarterback make several times Saturday.   

I'm not saying he's the only problem.  But when your QB doesn't make QB plays it destroys everything around him. 

>Do you think maybe the OL runs out of gas because he's scrambling around all over the place? 
>Do you think maybe the WRs get disillusioned because even when they do it right (see example provided) Nix doesn't deliver?
>Do you think maybe the run game is getting stuffed because nobody (not even Georgia fucking State) is concerned that Nix will make good decisions and beat them downfield so they're jamming 18 men at the line of scrimmage and just letting the receivers go? 
>Do you think they jam the box because they know with just a tiny iota of pressure, scramblin' Bo is gonna do what scramblin' Bo does?

All I'm saying is that we've seen this movie.  We know how it turns out.  Some spectacular plays. Some shit sandwiches. Some 'what the fuck' moments (both ways). 

Finley will step up into the pocket and deliver the ball.  I'm sick of watching Nix "run for his life" when he's creating a significant portion of that panic when he refuses to play the position. 
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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2021, 12:36:09 PM »
I mistakingly gave you more credit. Take the play out of slow motion and watch the whole left side collapse. Did you notice that OL on his back?
Once the first move was made, Bo thought it could happen. But then the line collapsed and the throwing lane disappeared.

Would TJ have seen over the fray and saw the play develop? I’m not sure. I do think he should have gotten a series to find out.
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Five statements of WISDOM
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2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.
5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friends, is the beginning of the end of any nation.

wesfau2

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2021, 12:38:55 PM »
I wonder how they graded the piss missiles he threw at Shivers swinging out from the backfield, including the tipped int?  Those wouldn't have been caught by most backs.

From their site:

Adjusted Completion Percentage

PFF's adjusted completion percentage metric is a better way of looking at a quarterback's overall accuracy at it's baseline. While our quarterback analysts are diving into actual accuracy by ball location, route type, depth of target and other factors, adjusted completion percentage is gleaned from our initial data collection of every game. Adjusted completion percentage takes into account factors outside of the quarterback's control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw. Ultimately, this gives a real indication of completion percentage on passes that can actually be caught, as opposed to a quarterback's completion percentage for a given game being tarnished by a load of receiver drops or other factors.


and for the full analysis:

Drop Rate

Drop rate is another individualized statistic for receivers (or any pass-catcher for that matter) as it takes into account the amount of catchable targets thrown a receiver's way against the amount of dropped passes on those catchable targets. This isolates the amount of actual passes that could be caught by a receiver, not the amount of total targets, and produces a better mark of how ‘sure' a receiver's hands are a given game, season, career.


https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-signature-statistics-a-glossary
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Kaos

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2021, 01:13:08 PM »
I mistakingly gave you more credit. Take the play out of slow motion and watch the whole left side collapse. Did you notice that OL on his back?
Once the first move was made, Bo thought it could happen. But then the line collapsed and the throwing lane disappeared.

Would TJ have seen over the fray and saw the play develop? I’m not sure. I do think he should have gotten a series to find out.

When the guy got punched in the face and took a step backward, Nix bailed.  He bailed before he had to.  He bailed at the hint of pressure.  The throw should have come out three seconds after the snap.  There was no pressure at that point.  Instead he hesitated, dodged to his left a step and then it was over. 

Yeah the line got blown up, but so did A&M's and their garbage QB stood in, stepped up and delivered the ball. 

It was his first read.  When the DB bit on the stop, and the safety was on the other side of the field, the ball should have been gone.  If that was his second or third read, sure.  But it was his first (and only) look.  He didn't deliver the ball.

Yeah, it's easy to Monday Morning QB.  But that's what I see. 
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CCTAU

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2021, 02:19:57 PM »
When the guy got punched in the face and took a step backward, Nix bailed.  He bailed before he had to.  He bailed at the hint of pressure.  The throw should have come out three seconds after the snap.  There was no pressure at that point.  Instead he hesitated, dodged to his left a step and then it was over. 

Yeah the line got blown up, but so did A&M's and their garbage QB stood in, stepped up and delivered the ball. 

It was his first read.  When the DB bit on the stop, and the safety was on the other side of the field, the ball should have been gone.  If that was his second or third read, sure.  But it was his first (and only) look.  He didn't deliver the ball.

Yeah, it's easy to Monday Morning QB.  But that's what I see.

When you don’t trust your receivers….
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Five statements of WISDOM
1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity, by legislating the wealth out of prosperity.
2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.
5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friends, is the beginning of the end of any nation.

GH2001

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2021, 06:00:50 PM »


>Do you think maybe the OL runs out of gas because he's scrambling around all over the place?  Maybe but they are awful in pass protection nonetheless - 80% of snaps. Their PFF grades were all between 50-64 Sat....that is atrocious even facing Ga's front 7

>Do you think maybe the WRs get disillusioned because even when they do it right (see example provided) Nix doesn't deliver? No, I think this is way overthinking honestly. Were talking an isolated play here. They simply suck at catching the ball. Its that simple. They also aren't burning very many SEC DBs on their routes. Swartz and Seth probably would. Them leaving was huge. Seriously go look at the offers our WR corps got on Rivals and see if you see Ga, Bama, Ohio State, Clemson with an offer to any of them other than Robertson who xfered from Ga. They just are not very good.

>Do you think maybe the run game is getting stuffed because nobody (not even Georgia fucking State) is concerned that Nix will make good decisions and beat them downfield so they're jamming 18 men at the line of scrimmage and just letting the receivers go?  The run game got stuffed Sat because Ga's DL is prob the best in CFB and sold out to stop it. But just in general, our offensive line sucks ass talent wise. It does an ample job of run blocking against Equal or Inferior teams - aside from the Ga State anomaly. But against better talent, they are not very good. Its Sun Belt level at best. One kid on that OL that could start for an avg or better sec school (Brahms) and that's if he improves some.

>Do you think they jam the box because they know with just a tiny iota of pressure, scramblin' Bo is gonna do what scramblin' Bo does? Ga knew our WRs were terrible and trusted their DBs and Safetys one on one most plays. And it worked like a charm.

All I'm saying is that we've seen this movie.  We know how it turns out.  Some spectacular plays. Some shit sandwiches. Some 'what the fuck' moments (both ways). I don't think we disagree. But I think its ALL of these things, not just on Bo. I also think much of his premature taking off is for a few reasons - he doesn't trust that line so there is paranoia and being trigger happy. He also still has 2 years of dysfunctional play from Gus still in him. I hate it for the kid but I think he may be damaged goods. I was worried about this before the season started. I posted it here.


Finley will step up into the pocket and deliver the ball.  I'm sick of watching Nix "run for his life" when he's creating a significant portion of that panic when he refuses to play the position. When Finley pulled it out against Ga State - he was running for his life. THEY DO NOT TRUST THIS LINE. And to a lesser degree the receivers too.


But the bigger point is that we have a team full of Bo's that are damaged goods and/or mediocre talent.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2021, 06:07:50 PM by GH2001 »
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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2021, 06:06:31 PM »
When you don’t trust your receivers….

Aggie also has a shitload more talent than we do and for the most part, their WRs, OL and QB are in sync as far as trust.
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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2021, 06:48:02 PM »
Georgia is better than us. They’ve been that way for two decades. That’s facts.

Auburn is in the upper part of the second tier of the SEC. Twice we rose up and made the dance. One other time, we caught fire but ran out of heat in the finish.

Can we breakthrough? Of course, obviously. Can we stay there year in and year out? That’s what I’m interested in more than a one year flash followed by three years of suck.
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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2021, 10:09:23 AM »
I've said this in other threads, but I'll say it here again, because my take is always something people want to see time and time again. 

College football is discussed 365 24/7 in the South.  Prior to the season, I listened to every analyst who gets paid to break things down.  People who have been there, done that, lived it and continue to live it.  Everyone to a man said this Auburn club was one huge question mark.  I listened and tried hard to come up with an orange and blue counter.

They said Bo Nix was wildly inconsistent and still can't break himself of taking off too early.  I said it was all coaching.  Malzahn has ruined QB after QB.  This staff will flip the switch for him.  Reality is....he's better.  Not that much better, and he has very little help around him save the running backs.

They knew our O-line sucked ass last year.  They also knew all of them were coming back.  And they knew the big question was to what degree they would suck this year.  My counter was new strength and conditioning program, new coaching, new schemes.  Have to be better.  They're not, and there's nobody riding the bench who is better.

The analysts said every bit of our production at wide receiver walked last year and nobody has a clue about this bunch.  I thought they were tall and athletic, and some coaching by someone not named Kodi will bring this group together.  Nope!  They get very little separation and can't catch it when they do.  They are leading the SEC in dropped passes.

They said the D-line is also a huge question mark because True, New and Mud Kat all bolted for greener pastures. I said big deal.  Those guys were full of suck. I again countered with the S&C program that seriously beefed up players like Wooden, Walker and Hall, along with several decent additions from the portal. Truth is, there's not one All-SEC caliber D-lineman in the bunch.  Derrick Brown was dominant player.  Carl Lawson was a dominant player.  They've been gone a while now and help is not on the way.

I tried to find a silver lining and hoped we would surprise a lot of the naysayers.  We haven't.  But, I like what Harzin has done.  I like the new attitude, the physicality, the offense which is actually a joy to watch from the standpoint of actual play calls being made, game planning being put into effect....something besides two runs up the middle and a back shoulder throw to Seth.  Love the use of our tight ends.  Does anyone realize one of our tight ends, John Michael Shenker, has 19 catches for 256 yards?  That's more than the last 28 years combined. 

This shit is on Malzahn.  Maybe next year as well. He left the cupboard all but bare in the places where it counts the most, the trenches on both sides of the ball.  In the S-fucking-E-fucking-C-fucking-West.  You don't build that back overnight.  Harbinz has his work cut out for himself.     
« Last Edit: October 12, 2021, 10:12:12 AM by Snaggletiger »
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Headin' for the south lands
Lookin' for some fun
Down below that dixie mason
I know your the one
My tongue is chasin' my eyes are wide
I can see paradise
I been down here once or twice
But I never seen it look so nice

wesfau2

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2021, 11:14:46 AM »
Agree with the distinguished gentleman from the Wiregrass.

Also, for a little perspective: two losses to #1 (@ home) and #7 (away) isn't horrible.  In a coaching transition year, those aren't really the teams you're expecting to beat.
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You can keep a wooden stake in your trunk
On the off-chance that the fairy tales ain't bunk
And Imma keep a bottle of that funk
To get motel parking lot, balcony crunk.

Snaggletiger

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Re: Its not Nix, unless it is
« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2021, 11:19:00 AM »
Agree with the distinguished gentleman from the Wiregrass.

Also, for a little perspective: two losses to #1 (@ home) and #7 (away) isn't horrible.  In a coaching transition year, those aren't really the teams you're expecting to beat.

That would definitely be some proppa perspective.
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Headin' for the south lands
Lookin' for some fun
Down below that dixie mason
I know your the one
My tongue is chasin' my eyes are wide
I can see paradise
I been down here once or twice
But I never seen it look so nice