At least both of the games we made the list for are W's.
Also, I understand K's need for "cautious negativity", but I don't really understand the point you're trying to make. You do realize we have a new defensive coordinator too, right? One that, from all accounts so far, is an improvement over Roof by leaps and bounds.
No negativity. You people need to yank your fucking panties off your head.
Merely made a point.
The defense gave up 376 total points last year. If it makes a significant improvement and shaves 76 points off that total -- essentially a touchdown a game improvement over the year -- you'd have to consider that good.
I'd love to think that it could reverse the same kind of trend that occurred when Roof came in and flip from 376 points back to 220 or so. That's a 12 point per game improvement which would be huge. Is that possible? Who knows? I sure don't.
Before Roof, no Auburn defense had EVER given up 300 points in a season. All three of his did. So let's say Van Gorder IS able to slice it back to under 300. Let's say he can knock it back by 10 points per game. Thats 246 for the year. Over 13 games? Still have to cover 18 points per.
Based on what I saw in the MSU and Utah State games I'd be really happy with a defense that gave up ten points per game less.
So let's look at the offense for a minute. While we all agree that Roof's defense was statistically the worst we've ever seen, we also have to agree that Malzahn's was the MOST productive in Auburn history.
Is it realistic to expect the new OC -- who is admittedly not as "wide open" and more traditional than Gus -- to post 34 points per game as Gus did over three years (and with Todd/Moseley/Trotter for two of those)?
For three years we've relied on offense to bail out the defense. Can we count on that any longer? Don't think anybody knows.
The point was that if even if the defense makes what anybody in their right mind would consider SIGNIFICANT improvement -- ten points per game -- the offense may still have to bear an undue burden.
And if the offense isn't prolific, even a significant improvement by the defense may not make a major change in the outcomes.
It's just an observation, it's not negative or positive.
I'd love to say I'm confident AU will win ten or more (or by the same token be confident enough to say we'd lose five).
There's just too much we don't know on BOTH sides of the ball to do that. Only saying that while it's reasonable to expect the defense to be better than the worst we've ever seen, it's also reasonable to expect the offense to slip some from the best we've ever seen. We hope the defense improves drastically while we also hope the offense doesn't suffer a dropoff at all. Maybe it happens that way.
How much one improves versus how much the other slips is the answer nobody has.