By: Mr. Sensible

Will this be an old school defensive battle? The author thinks so.

Florida 24, Alabama 20

Three Keys for Florida Victory

1) Florida’s Defense
It is safe to say, Alabama hasn’t faced a tougher test than the one waiting this Saturday. Florida’s league leading defense is built in pressure, aggressiveness, and taking the ball away from the opponent. It is as hard to move the ball consistently against Florida as it is to score points – only nine times this season has the other team crossed the goalline against the Gators. Moreover, Florida is good as stuffing the run – only giving up 2.6 yards per attempt – which puts the onus on Alabama’s passing game even more. The Gators defensive backfield has produced 20 INTs this year and in a game against big, physical wide receivers of LSU (comparable to Alabama’s squad), Florida held them to 11 catches for 96 yards. That’s darn impressive. The loss of Carlos Dunlap on the defensive line due to suspension is noteworthy and he will be sorely missed. However, Florida possesses strength in scheme and quality depth which helps to cover for that loss and gives them a distinct advantage in this game.

2) Florida’s Coaching Staff
It is not a matter of Florida’s staff being better than Alabama’s as much as it is Florida’s staff has experience in these games and beyond and it all starts with the head coach, Urban Meyer.  It’s hard to describe Meyer without using the word “winner” in the report. Five double-digit win season, four conference titles,  two undefeated regular seasons, two BCS Championships, a number one overall NFL draft pick, a Heisman trophy quarterback, and 95 total wins over his nine year head coaching career. At Florida, he’s 56-9 overall and this may not even be the best team he’s fielded for the Gators. The supporting staff is excellent (don’t be surprised to see some of them plucked from the sidelines by season’s end) and they get maximum effort from highly-touted players. That’s not a small feat. It’s rare for Alabama’s Nick Saban to be equaled by the opposing sideline. Florida’s Meyer may just be better.

Only 2 more games of Hype, Will Vern's head explode? ...it just might.

3) Tim Tebow
Without going into too much hyperbole, Tebow is the x-factor, been there done it all, leader every team covets at the signal caller position. Even when it doesn’t seem possible for him to do something else, he finds ways to do it. Tebow’s won 34 times as a starter and lost only five times (four of those coming in his first year as starter). He’s thrown 84 TDs against 15 interceptions and rushed for a league record 56 TDs. Besides the insane stats, the leadership skills are undeniable and, maybe, unbeatable in big games like this one. Last year going into the fourth quarter, Florida was against the ropes and then Tebow made plays – with his arm no less – to bring them back to two fourth quarter scores against roughly the same Alabama team he’ll face Saturday. It’s hard to go against this guy with the big prizes are on the line.

Raise your hand if you think Alabama can knock Tebow out of the game. It took a blindside shot under the chin to do it before and it’s the only time we’ve seen this guy take a lick and not get up from it. I don’t think Alabama can be one dimensional on offense the way they were against Auburn and win this game; Florida’s too good at pass rush and pass defense for that. Alabama proved they can beat Auburn without a running game. Can they beat Florida without it? I don’t think so because opposing teams hoping to win against the Gators need balance. When it comes down to it, the best defense against Florida’s offense is to control the clock and keep the ball out of Tim Tebow’s hands. Finally, Florida’s offense isn’t as explosive – the scoring average is down 8 points and they haven’t been in the endzone as much – but they have actually gained more yards than last year’s squad. Additionally, the defense gives up 3 points less and 33 yards less per game this year. I’d say Florida is as good as 2008, just getting it done differently.

Final Thoughts
This is appointment football television for college fans. It’ll be an epic battle at every position and will come down to the wire. In the end, I believe Florida’s defense can limit Alabama’s endzone opportunities forcing field goals and the Gators offense can get to the endzone often enough to win the SEC Championship.

I decided to finally write for my own front page.  Since I am jonesing for some football, I give you the 1^st annual Godfather Previews the SEC.  Who, you might be asking, is the Godfather and why should we care about his SEC preview.  To answer those questions I am the Godfather (find out why in our forums) and I don’t really care whether you like my SEC preview or not.  I am not however a talking head or media person, I have no insider knowledge, I am a regular guy just like you, who runs this board for fun and really enjoys College Football.  So, with introductions out of the way, I shall begin.

I’ll start with the Eastern Division, where as much as it pains me to say, will contain the SEC Champion and possibly the National Champion, once again. 

Predicted 2009 Finishes

Florida Gators: (8-0 SEC; 12-0 Overall)

With the return of Superman, aka Tim Tebow (a man-child whom I think even Chuck Norris is scared of) for his Senior and final year (Of course if CBS, I’m looking at you Vern, has anything to say about it he might get 4 more years of eligibility) the Gators are set-up to make a repeat at the SEC Championship and National Title.  How can anyone argue with this?  The Gators return 8 on Offense and 11 on Defense. Forget about Tebow and the offensive train Coach Urban Meyer captains, this Gator team is returning 11 Starters from a defense that Ranked 9^th in the country last year in yards allowed per game (285.29). This is just one of the reasons I still cannot believe that DC Charlie Strong is not a head coach somewhere.  Reviewing the Gators schedule this year and believing that most SEC teams are still rebuilding / revamping, I just don’t see them falling to anyone.

 Predicted Losses: None 

Games on the Fence: Oct 10 at LSU, Death Valley is a dangerous place to play, the Gators have a week off before. I see no problems.

Underrated: Coach Charlie Strong

MVP: Who else: Superman!!

Georgia Bulldogs: (6-2 SEC; 8-4 Overall)

Georgia is a bit of a wild card.  With his Motor still running David Pollack and David Greene have finally left Georgia, wait what?  Just kidding!!! Who is gone though is #1 draft pick Matthew Stafford and star running back Knowshon Moreno. Coach Mark Richt has been at Georgia for awhile now and he has had some high profile Georgia teams. I’m just not convinced that this team will be one of those.  The Bulldogs return 7 on Offense and 7 on Defense from a 2008 team that most folks regarded to be the #1 preseason team in the country.  In reality they were schizophrenic at best.  That being said, Richt recruits well and I fully expect this team to be in the hunt for most games. I said 8-4 they could just as easily be 10-2 like I said wild card!

Predicted Losses: Oklahoma State, LSU, Florida, Georgia Tech

Games on the Fence: Sept 5^th at Oklahoma State = game on the road with new starting QB a couple of WR’s and RB….against a strong opponent…yikes. Oct 3^rd vs. LSU, and Nov. 28^th at Georgia Tech.

Underrated: QB Joe Cox

MVP: WR A.J. Green

South Carolina Gamecocks (3-5 SEC; 7-5 Overall)

The Ol’ Ball Coach returns for his 5^th season in Columbia, and to say he has made the team significantly better is up for debate.  He made some big staff changes in the off season hoping to help shore up his offensive line and rushing game.  Last year South Carolina ranked 112 in the nation in offensive rushing production.  Despite Spurrier’s air attack it still takes a running game in the powerhouse SEC to get wins.  The Defense was another beast, although crumbling at the end of 2008 they were the backbone of the team and kept them in most games, late into the 4^th quarter.  Look for a repeat of 2008 with the Gamecocks holding teams till the end, only to lose due to depth. I expect a lot of thrown visors and/or clipboards.

Predicted Losses: Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida

Games on the Fence: Oct 31 at Tennessee otherwise known as the game for third place.  Nov 7^th at Arkansas

Underrated: New Offensive Line Coach Eric Wolford

MVP: LB Eric Norwood

Tennessee Volunteers (3-5 SEC; 6-6 Overall)

Longtime Coach Phil Fulmer is gone; new big mouthed Coach Lane Kiffin is in.  If these Tennessee Vols can play half as good as he boasts look for them to challenge for the title…not!  While this squad will be improved over last years team, there is still to much rebuilding left to do.  Other than his mouth Kiffin does seem to have this team headed in the right direction. He has amassed an impressive staff including one of the best defensive minds ever Monte Kiffin or “Daddy” as Lane calls him. He also seems to be using his mouth to good use, somewhat, signed Pahokee while on the recruiting trail as he has already signed some big name recruits. However, the best part of this 2008 team is also its biggest reason I think that they will stumble in 2009. The Vols return only 5 starters on a defense squad that was ranked 3^rd in the Nation and 1^st in the SEC. The schedule doesn’t help either as it is probably the toughest in the SEC. 

Will Rico McCoy continue to dominate for the 2009 Vols?

 

Predicted Losses: UCLA, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss

Games on the Fence: Oct 3^rd vs. Auburn could be a big battle and the deciding factor as to how these teams end up, Oct 31 vs. South Carolina

Underrated: Defensive Line

MVP: LB Uncle Rico McCoy

 Vanderbilt Commodores (1-7 SEC; 5-7 Overall)

Much of the defense returns from this surprisingly tough Vandy team that finished 7-6 last year including a Music City Bowl win.  However, I don’t think they will be as tough this year, especially after losing Chris Nickson’s feet.  We are talking about a Vandy offense that ranked 117^th in the nation, on the bright side they can only go up from there. The defense on the other hand was ranked 30^th and was the heart of this team. Even though they do return 9 defensive starters the losses of Reshard Langford-SS and D.J. Moore-CB will be too much to fill and the hopes of a second consecutive bowl game…will be down the bowl.

Predicted Losses: LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia, S. Carolina, Florida, Tennessee

Games on the Fence: Oct 31^st vs. Georgia Tech, Nov. 14^th vs. Kentucky- or the game that decides last place in the Eastern Division.

Underrated: Wide Receivers

MVP: LB Patrick Benoist

Kentucky Wildcats (0-8 SEC; 4-8 Overall)

Kentucky does have one thing going for it, no new coaches.  A lot of the SEC previews I have read seem to think Kentucky might be strong this season, I disagree.  Outside of Tennessee I think that Kentucky has one of the toughest schedules in the conference. Not only that but, Kentucky also lost the best player they’ve had since Jared “fatboy” Lorenzen in player Dicky Lyons.  Don’t misunderstand me I still think Kentucky will be competitive, nor do I think they won’t be in games. However,  playing 11 games in a row without a bye, well, anyone who knows the SEC will tell you that does not equal success. My prediction no bowling for Kentucky this holiday season.

Predicted Losses: Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee

Games on the Fence: Oct 31^st vs. Mississippi State this could be the turning point in Kentucky’s season, win this game and a bowl game is very possible, Nov. 14^th vs. Vanderbilt

Underrated: QB Mike Hartline

MVP: LB Micah Johnson 

Tomorrow: The wild, wild Western Division and our beloved Auburn Tigers.