By: Mr. Sensible

Will this be an old school defensive battle? The author thinks so.

Florida 24, Alabama 20

Three Keys for Florida Victory

1) Florida’s Defense
It is safe to say, Alabama hasn’t faced a tougher test than the one waiting this Saturday. Florida’s league leading defense is built in pressure, aggressiveness, and taking the ball away from the opponent. It is as hard to move the ball consistently against Florida as it is to score points – only nine times this season has the other team crossed the goalline against the Gators. Moreover, Florida is good as stuffing the run – only giving up 2.6 yards per attempt – which puts the onus on Alabama’s passing game even more. The Gators defensive backfield has produced 20 INTs this year and in a game against big, physical wide receivers of LSU (comparable to Alabama’s squad), Florida held them to 11 catches for 96 yards. That’s darn impressive. The loss of Carlos Dunlap on the defensive line due to suspension is noteworthy and he will be sorely missed. However, Florida possesses strength in scheme and quality depth which helps to cover for that loss and gives them a distinct advantage in this game.

2) Florida’s Coaching Staff
It is not a matter of Florida’s staff being better than Alabama’s as much as it is Florida’s staff has experience in these games and beyond and it all starts with the head coach, Urban Meyer.  It’s hard to describe Meyer without using the word “winner” in the report. Five double-digit win season, four conference titles,  two undefeated regular seasons, two BCS Championships, a number one overall NFL draft pick, a Heisman trophy quarterback, and 95 total wins over his nine year head coaching career. At Florida, he’s 56-9 overall and this may not even be the best team he’s fielded for the Gators. The supporting staff is excellent (don’t be surprised to see some of them plucked from the sidelines by season’s end) and they get maximum effort from highly-touted players. That’s not a small feat. It’s rare for Alabama’s Nick Saban to be equaled by the opposing sideline. Florida’s Meyer may just be better.

Only 2 more games of Hype, Will Vern's head explode? ...it just might.

3) Tim Tebow
Without going into too much hyperbole, Tebow is the x-factor, been there done it all, leader every team covets at the signal caller position. Even when it doesn’t seem possible for him to do something else, he finds ways to do it. Tebow’s won 34 times as a starter and lost only five times (four of those coming in his first year as starter). He’s thrown 84 TDs against 15 interceptions and rushed for a league record 56 TDs. Besides the insane stats, the leadership skills are undeniable and, maybe, unbeatable in big games like this one. Last year going into the fourth quarter, Florida was against the ropes and then Tebow made plays – with his arm no less – to bring them back to two fourth quarter scores against roughly the same Alabama team he’ll face Saturday. It’s hard to go against this guy with the big prizes are on the line.

Raise your hand if you think Alabama can knock Tebow out of the game. It took a blindside shot under the chin to do it before and it’s the only time we’ve seen this guy take a lick and not get up from it. I don’t think Alabama can be one dimensional on offense the way they were against Auburn and win this game; Florida’s too good at pass rush and pass defense for that. Alabama proved they can beat Auburn without a running game. Can they beat Florida without it? I don’t think so because opposing teams hoping to win against the Gators need balance. When it comes down to it, the best defense against Florida’s offense is to control the clock and keep the ball out of Tim Tebow’s hands. Finally, Florida’s offense isn’t as explosive – the scoring average is down 8 points and they haven’t been in the endzone as much – but they have actually gained more yards than last year’s squad. Additionally, the defense gives up 3 points less and 33 yards less per game this year. I’d say Florida is as good as 2008, just getting it done differently.

Final Thoughts
This is appointment football television for college fans. It’ll be an epic battle at every position and will come down to the wire. In the end, I believe Florida’s defense can limit Alabama’s endzone opportunities forcing field goals and the Gators offense can get to the endzone often enough to win the SEC Championship.

Are the powers that be controlling more than the telecast?

by Kevin Strickland

When ESPN signed a blockbuster $2 billion, 15 year deal in August of 2008 with the Southeastern Conference for the rights to televise sporting events including football and basketball many wondered what impact the agreement might have on the future of sports.

Some, echoing the sentiment expressed by former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville, expressed concern at the amount of influence the network now commands and raised the question of where the line between broadcasting games and having a vested interest in their outcome begins to blur (http://www.tigersx.com/ks/espn-influence-is-also-its-curse/).

As the 2009 SEC season unfolds, many are wondering if the specter of tampering with the possible outcome of games might already have reared its ugly head.

In recent weeks a series of egregiously bad officiating calls have gone against opponents of both SEC front runners Alabama and Florida.

It’s undeniable that the calls in question changed the dynamic of the games if not their actual outcomes and each contributed heavily to keeping both the Tide and Gators undefeated through ten games.

When the Gators were in danger against a resilient Arkansas team, the Razorbacks were mystifyingly flagged for a personal foul/ The sham penalty extended a Florida drive allowing the Gators to tie the game with just over seven minutes remaining.

When Mississippi State challenged the Gators, the officiating crew and then the replay booth allowed a Florida touchdown on an interception when the naked eye and numerous slow-motion replays proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the ball was fumbled before crossing the goal.

On Saturday, with Alabama up six and driving in the fourth quarter, LSU intercepted a Greg McElroy pass. Everybody in the stadium saw it. Everybody watching on television saw a clear pick with both feet placed squarely in bounds. There was even a large divot where the first foot had been planted.

The only people in the stadium who didn’t see the interception? Two confused officials and a blind replay booth. The officials ruled the pass incomplete but not before they looked into each other’s eyes as if puzzling over what to do. Adding insult to injury, the the replay official confirmed the errant call.

Alabama went on to kick a field goal and increase their lead to nine. The difference between a six point spread and nine point advantage is canyonesque in a game where points are at a premium.

Could LSU have driven the field and scored to take the lead? Alabama fans snort at the idea and insist their defense wouldn’t have allowed such an affront, but stranger things have happened against better teams. Would the Tigers have seized the shift in momentum and broken the back of Alabama’s undefeated season? As a result of the blatantly erroneous call, we’ll never know.

Later, officials failed to react to an obvious foul on a screen pass to Julio Jones that helped spring the Alabama receiver for a long touchdown that sealed the win.

Shoddy officiating or a pattern of protecting the league’s sacred cows?

Because these were clearly the right calls to make....wink...wink!

“Speculation,” LSU head coach Les Miles grimly offered in the aftermath of the loss to Alabama, “is rampant.”

Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen, Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin and Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino have all come under fire for questioning the competence, if not the integrity, of the SEC officiating crews.

The crew that worked the Arkansas-Florida game was suspended for their blatant incompetence.

SEC Commissioner Mike Slive has made it clear that he won’t tolerate criticism of officiating by firing warnings and leveling fines on coaches who do — even when those coaches are correct in their assessments.

When coaches are prevented from questioning obvious wrongs and are fined for speaking out, does that promote transparency or make it appear that the SEC does, in fact, have something to hide?

What does the SEC and by proxy ESPN have to gain by offering protection to Alabama and Florida? Isn’t the adage that an upset can happen on any given Saturday part of the pageantry and allure of college football?

The answers? Money, and lots of it. And not so much any more.

ESPN has a multi-billion dollar tie-in with the SEC. It is in the best interests of the network for the SEC to be represented in the BCS title game. The parent company of ESPN — ABC — owns the broadcast rights to January’s title game. It is also in the best interests of that network for an SEC team to hold one position.

When Florida was in trouble against Arkansas, can’t you imagine the suits at ABC sweating? What if the Gators had lost? And then beat Alabama in the championship game? Would the BCS computers spit out a Texas vs. TCU or Boise or Cincinnati title matchup? That would spell ratings disaster.

No, the SEC needs to make sure it holds up its end of the bargain and sends either the Gators or the Tide to the major stage.

Forget pageantry and the innocence of the college football experience. Cinderella’s a great story, but it’s not good for the bottom line if the kitchen help shows up at the ball and steals the spotlight away from the pre-ordained princesses.

Texas is, at this point, a virtual lock. The Longhorns would have to stumble and stumble badly down the stretch. Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M should pose no significant threat to Texas’ march to the title game and the Big 12 North opponent in the Big 12 Title Game is likely to offer little competition.

With half the bracket hopefully filled, ESPN and ABC needs a Florida or Alabama on the other side of the slate to help boost ad revenues, amp up viewership and pad ticket sales. The networks can’t afford to roll the dice on a BCS computer spitting out a Boise State or TCU at number one or two. Think of the lost revenue.

But what if Texas does trip over a blade of grass down the stretch? If the Tide and Gators are potentially off the board, the networks could envision a disaster of comet-smashing-into-the-Yucatan impact.

It’s a worst nightmare scenario, the kind of thing that causes network executives to wake up screaming in the middle of the night, to consider the possibilities if media darlings Florida, Alabama, Texas, USC and in any other season LSU and Oklahoma were to all fade.

USC imploded. ESPN and ABC couldn’t help the Trojans despite spending $2.4 million on hair gel for Kirk Herbstriet and getting Pete Carroll to grace their commercials.

Oklahoma flopped. Not even the networks could magically repair Sam Bradford’s shoulder, but not for lack of trying.

By the time LSU got to Alabama, the Bayou Bengals had a loss under their belts. Not wise to risk a one-loss team making the SEC title game and knocking off an unbeaten Florida.

The networks can’t do anything about Texas, the Longhorns have to make their own way. But what if they don’t?

Should Texas fail and if the SEC Champion is toting a loss, the possibility of a BCS title game between Boise State and TCU or Cincinnati exists.

If the refs looked like this no one would complain about the officiating.

That would be the mother of network nightmares. If the BCS burped out a Boise-Cincinnati BCS title game, it could also spell the beginning of the end for the BCS itself. The major conferences would balk and balk vociferously at a system that could create a title game that lacking in old-school star power.

To what lengths would the SEC and its partners ESPN and ABC go to prevent just such an epochal event?

Is it too much to believe the network might subtly exert its $2 billion muscle and quietly encourage the SEC to protect its investments?

Is such a suggestion coming from a company that staked 15 years of its future on the league really so far-fetched?

Whether there’s any veracity to the suspicions and speculation that now runs rampant, the video evidence appears to show a conclusive pattern to the botched calls. Perception is reality and the appearance of impropriety clearly exists.

Not even a replay from the booth can overturn that call.

By: Brian Kleisley

In my SEC East preview, I said that the SEC Champion and Potential BCS Champion would come from the Eastern Division (if you didn’t read part 1 or have been in a coma for the last few weeks, it’s the Florida Gators).  However, from top to bottom, the tougher division will likely be the Western Division, where all 3 of the top teams have a legitimate shot at facing Florida in the SEC championship game.

Ole Miss Rebels: (7-1 SEC; 11-1 Overall)

2009 Predicted Finish

Ole Miss is one of those teams that will either be very successful or will morph into the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs.  I happen to think they will be successful, much to my dismay and despite my hatred of all things Houston Nutt.  Reasons why…well, for one thing, they return 9 on offense and 8 on defense from a squad that went 9-4 last year, including a thrilling bowl victory over a tough Texas Tech team.  The players they did lose (draft, graduation etc.) were not big losses.  The most important returning player is Texas high school star QB Jevan Snead, along with 2008 All Conference WR Dexter McCluster.  The Rebels also have a decent defensive squad to help out with their quest for an SEC Championship. Their defense in 2008 ranked 19th in Total Defense allowing only 307.23 ypg and 20th in scoring defense allowing an average of 19 ppg.  Alabama and LSU stand in their way; however, I think Nutt and the Rebels will come out victorious. 

Predicted Losses: Arkansas

Games on the Fence: Oct 10 vs. Alabama, Oct 24th vs Arkansas, not many have made it through an entire SEC schedule unscathed; Arkansas will be Paris’s arrow, Nov. 21 vs LSU

Underrated: The Nutt Factor 

MVP: QB Jevan Snead 

LSU Tigers (5-3 SEC; 9-3 Overall)
The Hat returns for his 5th year on the Bayou, and he’s bringing with him big RB- Charles Scott and WR- Brandon LaFell.  2008 was a rough year for Miles and Bayou Tigers, ending 2008 with the record of 8-5 with all 5 losses coming against SEC opponents, including an OT thriller to Alabama. Will 2009 be like 2008 (a disappointment) or more like 2007 (12-2 and a BCS National Championship)? The answer lies somewhere in-between.  Miles has continued to stock pile top ranked recruits at LSU year in and year out, now we just need to find out whether he’s all hat and no cattle.  Returning the likes of Scott and LaFell certainly don’t hurt, but LSU’s road to the championship is paved with too many potholes in the name of Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  The key to LSU’s season will be the play of its quarterbacks or, more specifically, smoothing out the erratic play of its quarterbacks.  If they get any kind of consistency at the QB position, watch out college football world.

Predicted Losses: Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas

Games on the Fence: Oct 3 at Georgia, Nov. 7th at Alabama, Nov. 21 at Ole Miss if LSU has made it this far with only one SEC loss, look to this date to decide the Western Champ, Nov 28th vs. Arkansas 

Underrated: Consistent QB play 

MVP: RB-Charles Scott

Alabama Crimson Tide: (5-3 SEC; 8-4 Overall)
You have no idea how hard it is for an Auburn fan to predict good things for the Crimson Tide.  Unfortunately, they have a good coach, and even though they have some question marks on the offensive side of the ball they return a majority of past players on defense.  The realistic view is that the Tide will feature a “NASTY” defense for 2009, pretty much the same defense that ranked #7 in 2008 allowing 14.29 ppg and lead the Tide to a 12-0 start and an (albeit brief) #1 ranking last year.  Amongst the 9 returning starters for the Tide defense are 1st team All-SEC picks DL-Terrence Cody, LB-Rolando McClain, and DB-Javier Arenas.  The unrealistic view is that the Tide will again appear in the SEC Championship game.  While it is possible for them to make it, the losses of QB-John Parker Wilson, C-Antoine Caldwell, G-Marlon Davis, and T-Andre Smith will prove to be too much to overcome and the Tide will play second fiddle in this year’s Championship tune.

Predicted Losses: Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn 

Games on the Fence: Sept 5th vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta), Nov. 7th vs. LSU, and Nov. 27th at Auburn- Iron Bowl = Throw out the records. 

Underrated: K- Leigh Tiffin 

MVP: DB- Javier Arenas

Auburn Tigers (4-4 SEC; 8-4 Overall)

Will Chizik, Roof and Malzahn give Auburn a New Hope?

A new season begins on the Plains, and for the first time since 1998, Tommy Tuberville won’t be running out of the tunnel and onto the field.  Last year was a tough one for Tuberville and the Auburn Tigers, ending the season 5-7 and eliminated from bowl contention.  Right or wrong, new Head Coach Gene Chizik has taken the reins as Tuberville’s successor and brings a new hope tinged with uncertainty to Jordan-Hare Stadium.  The first thing Coach Chizik must do is find a way to truly turn this disjointed collection of players into a team.  Last year’s team found it difficult to stay focused during games, especially when things got rough, and this led to a pervasive sense of hopelessness.  By the end of the season, the team for the most part, just gave up.  Building a cohesive unit, and getting them to stick together through thick and thin is not a task so easily accomplished, considering Auburn’s schedule and lack of depth in key positions.  The Tigers must play in 11 straight games before finally getting some much needed R&R before the season ending Iron Bowl.  On offense the Tigers return 6 from 2008 and what can only be described as a disaster of an offensive scheme.  Those 6 including new starters, WR- DeAngelo Benton, WR- Terrell Zachery and true freshman RB- Onterio McCalebb hope to star in OC Gus Malzahan’s new system.  A rebuilt Chris Todd keeps the reins as QB1 and with a plethora of new targets and a new shoulder should have this offense producing more than 3 points.  On the opposite side of the ball, the Tigers are poised to again be one of the top rated SEC defenses. With the return of Senior Antonio Coleman -DE and newcomer Eltoro Freeman -LB this defense should help keep the Tigers close in all of their games. The offense just needs to put numbers on the board.  While they won’t be world beaters this year, a new coaching staff and some consistency should allow the Tigers to get back on track and hopefully looking for a New Year’s Day Bowl game.

Predicted Losses: Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia 

Games on the Fence: Oct 3 vs. Tennessee, Oct 24th  at LSU – If  Auburn can stay healthy they could be riding a nice winning streak to this point, win this game and all bets are off, Nov. 28th vs Alabama 

Underrated: New beefier Offensive Line 

MVP: RB/WR Mario Fannin

Arkansas Razorbacks (4-4 SEC; 8-4 Overall)
Can Coach Bobby Petrino turn the Hawgs around in his second season?  The man can coach and has been a hot commodity wherever he has gone.  A 41-9 record at Louisville is a testament to that.  He has also not been without controversy (see 2003 Auburn Jetgate and the 2007 Atlanta Falcons).  This year will be different for Petrino and the Hogs though.  All of the controversy is behind him, and he has the Razorbacks headed in the right direction.  No one is talking about Arkansas and that’s dangerous, for they might just have some good things going for them.  The biggest player on any team is still the quarterback, and on this Arkansas team that definitely rings true.  At 6’7” (5 star rated) Ryan Mallett could be the next Brian Brohm for Petrino and company. From what I’ve read he has one of the strongest arms in college football and for a coach that loves to spread the field. That might be just what the doctor ordered.

Can Mallett win for the Hogs?

Predicted Losses: Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Florida

Games on the Fence: Sept 26 at Tuscaloosa, Oct 10th vs. Auburn, Oct 24th at Ole Miss win this game and it could be enough of a confidence booster to finish the season strong, Nov 28th at LSU

Underrated: WR’s

MVP: QB- Ryan Mallett

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-6 SEC; 6-6 Overall)
A guy named Dan Mullen takes over the reins for Sylvester Croom.  Mullen’s credentials?  He was the man that got to talk to Tim Tebow via a headset.  Mullen, who has been with Urban Meyer since his Utah days, has much rebuilding to do at State. Starting on the offensive side of the ball, last season’s QB play was sporadic at best and QB Tyson Lee will need to step up and become a playmaker.  The good thing for Lee he has a mentor in Mullen, who has plenty of experience with some highly rated QB’s.  Behind Lee are RB’s Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre, both equally dangerous and poised to be a great one-two punch against tiring defenses.  Speaking of defenses, Mississippi State’s usually strong defense was a bit weak last year, especially when it came to stopping the run.  Ranking 73rd in the nation and giving up an average of 150 ypg on the ground does not bode well in a “run-first” conference. Best case scenario for this year will be getting back to a bowl game, and I think Coach Mullen could be the man to do just that.

Predicted Losses: Auburn, LSU, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss

Games on the Fence: Sept. 12th at Auburn, first SEC game for both new coaches, winning this game sets the tone for 2009, Oct. 3rd vs. Georgia Tech, Nov 21 at Arkansas

Underrated: QB Tyson Lee

MVP: RB Anthony Dixon

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