Good Morning Football: Auburn vs. the Piggies

By: Kevin Strickland

Will tomorrow’s early morning start be a wake-up call for the resurgent Auburn Tigers or will the Arkansas Razorbacks hit the snooze button on another SEC season?

All signs point to a high noon (well high elevenish at least) wild SEC West shootout. When the dust clears in the streets of Fayetteville tomorrow afternoon, one gunslinger will put a sixth notch on his pistol while the other crumples to a fatal 0-3 league sprawl.

Auburn will dodge the Mallet bullets, and utilize the Gatling gun, Gus Malzahn-directed offensive arsenal of Chris Todd, Ben Tate, Onterrio McCalebb, Darvin Adams, Mario Fannin, Tommy Trott and Terrell Zachary to shoot down the hopes of the ‘Hogs.

If you listen really closely right now you can hear the squealing. “What about Arkansas’ offense,” it goes. “We don’t just have Mallett, Joe Adams, Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Michael Smith. We can score too!”

Yes, Hog fans, you do have those weapons. Arkansas has scored points in bunches this season.

Here’s the rub. Arkansas has only faced one SEC-level defense so far this season: Alabama. How did the Razorbacks fare against the Tide? Seven points.

Mallet threw 41 passes and completed only 16 for 191 yards. As a team Arkansas rushed for a meager 63 yards.

Nobody’s saying the Auburn defense is akin to the 17th Annual Crimson Tide “As Good as 1992″ defense. It’s probably not in the same neighborhood at this point.

Auburn is in the SEC, however. Despite some obvious flaws and some busted assignments, the Tiger stopping unit is better than any of the rest of the teams Arkansas has played to this point.

Texas A&M on whom the ‘Hogs dumped 47 points? The Aggies are 75th in the country in total defense despite having played only New Mexico State, Utah State and UAB before venturing to Arkansas.

Here’s another eye opener. Utah State punished A&M, racking up 521 total yards on the Aggies. USU rolled up 334 of those through the air. It makes Mallett’s highlight-filled day against A&M just a little less impressive.

Georgia’s 64th in the nation in total defense. Missouri State? Well, they’re 1-AA.

The other problem is that the Razorbacks are one-dimensional. Through four games, against highly suspect competition, the ‘Hogs have failed to establish any rushing game to speak of. As a team, Arkansas has a total of just over 500 yards.

The Hogs rushed for 155 total yards against Georgia, 63 against Alabama, and 163 against Texas A&M.

When you look at it like that, Arkansas’ offense isn’t quite as frightening.

If Auburn’s defense stops the run game and puts even limited pressure on Mallett, it could be a long afternoon for the Hogs. Conversely, if the Tigers opt not to pressure Mallett and give him ample time to stand in the pocket, he does have the capacity to pick the secondary apart.

As criticized as the Auburn defense has been, and the Tigers have suffered their share of slings and arrows, it is ranked higher than any defense (other than Alabama) Arkansas has faced this season. The Tigers weigh in at 53rd.

Auburn will contain Arkansas, not stop them completely.

The question then becomes how the Tiger offense will fare against the Arkansas defense.

That’s when the shooting starts.

The ‘Hogs are currently ranked 97th in total defense. Only one team on Auburn’s schedule to this point is ranked lower – Ball State, a team the Tigers torched for 54 points.

Arkansas has not stopped anyone this season. The ‘Hogs have barely slowed them down. Texas A&M racked up 484 yards. Georgia posted 530. Alabama rolled for 425.

None of those teams have the offensive firepower Auburn has shown through four games.

Auburn trucked Tennessee for 459 yards in a game that was significantly more lopsided than the final score reflected. Tennessee was in the top ten in the nation defensively at the time the Tigers plowed through the Vols.

Auburn enters Saturday’s showdown ranked second in the nation in scoring offense, behind Texas. The Tigers are fifth in total offense.

A balanced attack is at the core of Malzah’s offense. Auburn split almost dead even at Tennessee, rushing for 224 and passing for 235.

Malzahn has also shown he isn’t afraid to play to what the defense gives him. When West Virginia sold out to stop the run, Malzahn called on Todd who lit up the Mountaineers for 300 yards and four touchdowns.

If the Razorbacks stuff the box to deny Tate and McCalebb, Todd has proven he has the tools to move the ball through the air.

There’s also this to consider.

Arkansas native Malzahn spent one controversy-filled season on the Razorback sideline.

Hired by Houston Nutt to implement his innovative offense but never fully given the reins, Malzahn departed for Tulsa. The split was acrimonious, divided the fanbase and may have helped hasten Nutt’s own departure from Arkansas a year later. Nutt’s critics note it was the only ten-win season of his Arkansas tenure.

Malzahn returned to his old stomping grounds last season as a member of the Golden Hurricane staff.

His Conference USA Tulsa squad posted 23 points and more than 500 yards of offense but were unable to take down his former employers. Arkansas prevailed 30-23.

The Golden Hurricanes had the ball at the Arkansas seven late in the game when a failed fourth down attempt derailed their bid to tie.

Malzahn has many more weapons at his disposal as offensive coordinator at Auburn than he did at Tulsa. He’s shown he knows how to use them.

Against Auburn’s defense, the Razorbacks will score. Against Arkansas’ defense, Malzahn’s Tigers will score more.

When the guns stop blazing on Saturday, Auburn will holster its pistol, wipe its brow and take a long swig from the 6-0 flask.

Enjoy the moment. There are much bigger and badder hombres kicking up dust on the horizon.

By: Brian Kleisley

In my SEC East preview, I said that the SEC Champion and Potential BCS Champion would come from the Eastern Division (if you didn’t read part 1 or have been in a coma for the last few weeks, it’s the Florida Gators).  However, from top to bottom, the tougher division will likely be the Western Division, where all 3 of the top teams have a legitimate shot at facing Florida in the SEC championship game.

Ole Miss Rebels: (7-1 SEC; 11-1 Overall)

2009 Predicted Finish

Ole Miss is one of those teams that will either be very successful or will morph into the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs.  I happen to think they will be successful, much to my dismay and despite my hatred of all things Houston Nutt.  Reasons why…well, for one thing, they return 9 on offense and 8 on defense from a squad that went 9-4 last year, including a thrilling bowl victory over a tough Texas Tech team.  The players they did lose (draft, graduation etc.) were not big losses.  The most important returning player is Texas high school star QB Jevan Snead, along with 2008 All Conference WR Dexter McCluster.  The Rebels also have a decent defensive squad to help out with their quest for an SEC Championship. Their defense in 2008 ranked 19th in Total Defense allowing only 307.23 ypg and 20th in scoring defense allowing an average of 19 ppg.  Alabama and LSU stand in their way; however, I think Nutt and the Rebels will come out victorious. 

Predicted Losses: Arkansas

Games on the Fence: Oct 10 vs. Alabama, Oct 24th vs Arkansas, not many have made it through an entire SEC schedule unscathed; Arkansas will be Paris’s arrow, Nov. 21 vs LSU

Underrated: The Nutt Factor 

MVP: QB Jevan Snead 

LSU Tigers (5-3 SEC; 9-3 Overall)
The Hat returns for his 5th year on the Bayou, and he’s bringing with him big RB- Charles Scott and WR- Brandon LaFell.  2008 was a rough year for Miles and Bayou Tigers, ending 2008 with the record of 8-5 with all 5 losses coming against SEC opponents, including an OT thriller to Alabama. Will 2009 be like 2008 (a disappointment) or more like 2007 (12-2 and a BCS National Championship)? The answer lies somewhere in-between.  Miles has continued to stock pile top ranked recruits at LSU year in and year out, now we just need to find out whether he’s all hat and no cattle.  Returning the likes of Scott and LaFell certainly don’t hurt, but LSU’s road to the championship is paved with too many potholes in the name of Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  The key to LSU’s season will be the play of its quarterbacks or, more specifically, smoothing out the erratic play of its quarterbacks.  If they get any kind of consistency at the QB position, watch out college football world.

Predicted Losses: Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas

Games on the Fence: Oct 3 at Georgia, Nov. 7th at Alabama, Nov. 21 at Ole Miss if LSU has made it this far with only one SEC loss, look to this date to decide the Western Champ, Nov 28th vs. Arkansas 

Underrated: Consistent QB play 

MVP: RB-Charles Scott

Alabama Crimson Tide: (5-3 SEC; 8-4 Overall)
You have no idea how hard it is for an Auburn fan to predict good things for the Crimson Tide.  Unfortunately, they have a good coach, and even though they have some question marks on the offensive side of the ball they return a majority of past players on defense.  The realistic view is that the Tide will feature a “NASTY” defense for 2009, pretty much the same defense that ranked #7 in 2008 allowing 14.29 ppg and lead the Tide to a 12-0 start and an (albeit brief) #1 ranking last year.  Amongst the 9 returning starters for the Tide defense are 1st team All-SEC picks DL-Terrence Cody, LB-Rolando McClain, and DB-Javier Arenas.  The unrealistic view is that the Tide will again appear in the SEC Championship game.  While it is possible for them to make it, the losses of QB-John Parker Wilson, C-Antoine Caldwell, G-Marlon Davis, and T-Andre Smith will prove to be too much to overcome and the Tide will play second fiddle in this year’s Championship tune.

Predicted Losses: Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn 

Games on the Fence: Sept 5th vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta), Nov. 7th vs. LSU, and Nov. 27th at Auburn- Iron Bowl = Throw out the records. 

Underrated: K- Leigh Tiffin 

MVP: DB- Javier Arenas

Auburn Tigers (4-4 SEC; 8-4 Overall)

Will Chizik, Roof and Malzahn give Auburn a New Hope?

A new season begins on the Plains, and for the first time since 1998, Tommy Tuberville won’t be running out of the tunnel and onto the field.  Last year was a tough one for Tuberville and the Auburn Tigers, ending the season 5-7 and eliminated from bowl contention.  Right or wrong, new Head Coach Gene Chizik has taken the reins as Tuberville’s successor and brings a new hope tinged with uncertainty to Jordan-Hare Stadium.  The first thing Coach Chizik must do is find a way to truly turn this disjointed collection of players into a team.  Last year’s team found it difficult to stay focused during games, especially when things got rough, and this led to a pervasive sense of hopelessness.  By the end of the season, the team for the most part, just gave up.  Building a cohesive unit, and getting them to stick together through thick and thin is not a task so easily accomplished, considering Auburn’s schedule and lack of depth in key positions.  The Tigers must play in 11 straight games before finally getting some much needed R&R before the season ending Iron Bowl.  On offense the Tigers return 6 from 2008 and what can only be described as a disaster of an offensive scheme.  Those 6 including new starters, WR- DeAngelo Benton, WR- Terrell Zachery and true freshman RB- Onterio McCalebb hope to star in OC Gus Malzahan’s new system.  A rebuilt Chris Todd keeps the reins as QB1 and with a plethora of new targets and a new shoulder should have this offense producing more than 3 points.  On the opposite side of the ball, the Tigers are poised to again be one of the top rated SEC defenses. With the return of Senior Antonio Coleman -DE and newcomer Eltoro Freeman -LB this defense should help keep the Tigers close in all of their games. The offense just needs to put numbers on the board.  While they won’t be world beaters this year, a new coaching staff and some consistency should allow the Tigers to get back on track and hopefully looking for a New Year’s Day Bowl game.

Predicted Losses: Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia 

Games on the Fence: Oct 3 vs. Tennessee, Oct 24th  at LSU – If  Auburn can stay healthy they could be riding a nice winning streak to this point, win this game and all bets are off, Nov. 28th vs Alabama 

Underrated: New beefier Offensive Line 

MVP: RB/WR Mario Fannin

Arkansas Razorbacks (4-4 SEC; 8-4 Overall)
Can Coach Bobby Petrino turn the Hawgs around in his second season?  The man can coach and has been a hot commodity wherever he has gone.  A 41-9 record at Louisville is a testament to that.  He has also not been without controversy (see 2003 Auburn Jetgate and the 2007 Atlanta Falcons).  This year will be different for Petrino and the Hogs though.  All of the controversy is behind him, and he has the Razorbacks headed in the right direction.  No one is talking about Arkansas and that’s dangerous, for they might just have some good things going for them.  The biggest player on any team is still the quarterback, and on this Arkansas team that definitely rings true.  At 6’7” (5 star rated) Ryan Mallett could be the next Brian Brohm for Petrino and company. From what I’ve read he has one of the strongest arms in college football and for a coach that loves to spread the field. That might be just what the doctor ordered.

Can Mallett win for the Hogs?

Predicted Losses: Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Florida

Games on the Fence: Sept 26 at Tuscaloosa, Oct 10th vs. Auburn, Oct 24th at Ole Miss win this game and it could be enough of a confidence booster to finish the season strong, Nov 28th at LSU

Underrated: WR’s

MVP: QB- Ryan Mallett

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-6 SEC; 6-6 Overall)
A guy named Dan Mullen takes over the reins for Sylvester Croom.  Mullen’s credentials?  He was the man that got to talk to Tim Tebow via a headset.  Mullen, who has been with Urban Meyer since his Utah days, has much rebuilding to do at State. Starting on the offensive side of the ball, last season’s QB play was sporadic at best and QB Tyson Lee will need to step up and become a playmaker.  The good thing for Lee he has a mentor in Mullen, who has plenty of experience with some highly rated QB’s.  Behind Lee are RB’s Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre, both equally dangerous and poised to be a great one-two punch against tiring defenses.  Speaking of defenses, Mississippi State’s usually strong defense was a bit weak last year, especially when it came to stopping the run.  Ranking 73rd in the nation and giving up an average of 150 ypg on the ground does not bode well in a “run-first” conference. Best case scenario for this year will be getting back to a bowl game, and I think Coach Mullen could be the man to do just that.

Predicted Losses: Auburn, LSU, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss

Games on the Fence: Sept. 12th at Auburn, first SEC game for both new coaches, winning this game sets the tone for 2009, Oct. 3rd vs. Georgia Tech, Nov 21 at Arkansas

Underrated: QB Tyson Lee

MVP: RB Anthony Dixon

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