The Stats
Key Alabama statistics:
Rush defense:
91 yards per game
911 total yards
3.05 yards per carry
5 touchdowns
29.9 attempts per game by opponent*
3rd in the country in overall rush defense
Pass defense:
7 touchdowns
9 interceptions
181 yards per game
51.4% completion percentage
9th in the country in overall pass defense
Scoring defense:
10.2 points per game
1st in the country in scoring defense
Rush offense:
207 yards per game
5.78 yards per carry
21 touchdowns
Pass offense:
238 yards per game
67.5 completion percentage
23 touchdowns
5 interceptions
8.3 yards per pass
Key Auburn statistics:
Defense:
153 yards of rushing per game
4.26 yards per carry
16 touchdowns given up on the ground
100th ranked pass defense
253.7 yards per game
11 touchdowns
12 interceptions
3rd ranked rushing offense
320 yards per game
6.7 yards per carry
37 touchdowns
105th ranked passing offense
15 touchdowns
7 interceptions
179.6 yards per game
Scoring defense: 28th in the country with 22 points per game
Scoring offense: 15th with 39 points per game
We'll Lose, but Why We May Actually Win
(Skip down for the TL;DR if you feel the need to)
Sooo...with all of that written down - I feel like we're going to lose. Now, before you x out the thread, this is a good thing that I believe we're going to lose.
In 2004, I remember telling my friend that Auburn needed a new coach. I was very naive at the time as my only college football experience was the 2003 season. I told my friend that Saban was a mastermind (thanks to my father's doting of him) and that Tuberville shat the bed in 2003 and would never have a really good team. Then we won.
Then in 2004, we played Georgia at home and I thought back to 2003 and how they demolished us. I thought we'd lose. Said we didn't really have a championship caliber team. Then we annihilated them.
In 2006, we had just lost to Arkansas and I told the same friend from earlier that Florida was going to beat us pretty badly at home. We won that one and it's the 2nd loudest game in history.
In 2007, I said that Holtz was right - if we went to Gainesville and won, he should run for senator. We won. Also in 2007, I traveled to Baton Rouge thinking that we'd maybe score 7 points against their defense. We damn near won that one.
In 2008, it was different. I for some reason believed that each week we were going to turn the season around. Even going into the Iron Bowl. Maybe it was because I had attended the Tony Franklin clinic for high school football coaches the previous January, but I was all in with Franklin. Then he was fired. That's when I said that Tuberville and the staff would put together a basic offense that would ground and pound and let the defense take over. I firmly believed we'd beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa and ruin their season. We finished 5-7.
In 2009, I thought we'd had a season similar to what 2012 was. I had no faith in Gene "Iowa State" Chizik. No faith in Malzahn's new style of offense especially after Tony Franklin. I was shocked that we went to Tennessee and beat them so easily. I was especially shocked when Alabama didn't blow us out in Jordan Hare.
In 2010, I never really bought into it being a championship season until the Georgia game. I thought we'd lose quite a bit of games after the Miss State close call. I really thought we were overrated but had a great quarterback after the Kentucky game. I thought LSU would beat us. I thought Georgia would beat us due to the distractions. Though, after the Georgia game, I thought we'd run past Alabama, the SECCG and easily win the BCSCG. At halftime of the Alabama game, I was close to turning it off because I thought we had no chance.
In 2011, if you go back in the history of this board, you can find numerous threads where I displayed confidence that we could upset LSU in Baton Rouge. We were laughed off the field.
In 2012, I had no hope after the Clemson game and was pretty much spot on with that.
In 2013, I thought we would lose going into the Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia games. I thought LSU would blow us out. I thought Georgia would beat us around 35-21 but that we did have a chance to win.
Never would I have believed that we'd be up 27-7 against Georgia at halftime.
TL;DR - My gut feeling and intuition has been pretty fucking wrong since I started following Auburn football.
So what am I feeling going into the Iron Bowl?
I feel like we will struggle to contain TJ Yeldon because he's more quick than powerful. We did well against Gurley because he tends to do well blowing through the line of scrimmage and using his sheer strength to rip through the defense. Yeldon has more elusiveness, much like Alex Collins, except he's even more slippery. Our linebackers struggle getting sideline to sideline, and Yeldon will make us pay.
Our defense as a whole struggles against the short yardage passing game. 10 yard outs, 7 yard curls - they kill us. It's been easy to dink and dunk against Auburn, and Alabama has four playmakers at receiver than can kill us.
Offensively for us, Alabama's bread and butter is stopping the run game. They have very fat, strong defensive linemen that run fit better than anyone in the country. We will struggle getting Mason going. The question becomes - can we get Marshall and Grant on the outside? If this were against the Hightower defense, I may say maybe. But this is the CJ Moseley and Depriest defense. This is a much faster - at least sideline to sideline - defense that tackles very well on the perimeter.
We also don't have a consistent passing game. It isn't putrid like the pundits would have you believe, but Marshall's 229 yards were padded with a ball thrown into double coverage that was tipped into a miracle.
Special teams is the only area I feel a bit confident, but I don't believe we've faced a returner like Christion Jones.
Then, worst of all, there's the Bama luck factor. You know what I mean - the fumblerooskies. The tipped pass that lands directly into a Bama player's hands who has a straight line to the endzone. The opponent botching the snap. The miscues. The suddenly dumbassery of the opposing coaching staff. The fact that Alabama can fumble fifteen times against Miss State but MIss State was having to use their third string QB and couldn't capitalize at all. We have to play smart football and not allow the Bama luck to get us.
To sum it all up, I feel like we're going to lose, and honestly, that makes me feel good about the game. Go figure.
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