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Pat Dye Field => War Damn Eagle => Topic started by: wesfau2 on August 03, 2009, 10:10:35 AM

Title: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: wesfau2 on August 03, 2009, 10:10:35 AM
Here are the national rankings for Arkansas, Auburn and Tulsa this decade in TD-pass ratio...

Year   Arkansas   Auburn   Tulsa
2000   66                68   103
2001   77                83   111
2002   24                25   64
2003   21                97   23
2004   21                  6   77
2005   59                39   47
2006   13                  49   64
2007   7                 99   3
2008   75                114   1

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=6&f=1010&t=4563480 (http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=6&f=1010&t=4563480)

Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: Saniflush on August 03, 2009, 10:12:00 AM
Well sure but he didn't have Chizik for a head coach....Wait, what?
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: AUChizad on August 03, 2009, 10:26:19 AM
Here are the national rankings for Arkansas, Auburn and Tulsa this decade in TD-pass ratio...

Year   Arkansas   Auburn   Tulsa
2000   66                68   103
2001   77                83   111
2002   24                25   64
2003   21                97   23
2004   21                  6   77
2005   59                39   47
2006   13                  49   64
2007   7                 99   3
2008   75                114   1

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=6&f=1010&t=4563480 (http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=6&f=1010&t=4563480)


So in summation, he took Arkansas from 59th to 13th in his one year there, they improved on that slightly without him, then freefell to 75th the following year.

He took Tulsa from 64th to 3rd, to 1st the following year (last year).

I think odds are good that he will substantially improve our ranking from 114th.

God help us if he doesn't.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: wesfau2 on August 03, 2009, 10:29:07 AM
So in summation, he took Arkansas from 59th to 13th in his one year there

With Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis in the backfield.  By most arkie accounts, Gus was not allowed to fully utilize his offense due to Nutt's interference.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 10:33:24 AM
With Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis in the backfield.  By most arkie accounts, Gus was not allowed to fully utilize his offense due to Nutt's interference.
I think according to the fifty-hojillion page documentary on the whole Nutt/Malzahn/Arkansas cluster fuck, they said he was really only allowed one game without interference. Nutt didn't think the offense could be successful in the SEC, and they had the above mentioned work horses. Grind that shit out.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: Kaos on August 03, 2009, 10:37:24 AM
I was about to have a wet dream. Then Chizik walked in, woke me up and spouted banal coaching cliches for 40 minutes.

My wood was wasted. Thanks for fucking it up chiz.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 10:41:54 AM
So in summation, he took Arkansas from 59th to 13th in his one year there, they improved on that slightly without him, then freefell to 75th the following year.

He took Tulsa from 64th to 3rd, to 1st the following year (last year).

I think odds are good that he will substantially improve our ranking from 114th.

God help us if he doesn't.
Gee, I wonder why that stat would have plummeted in the 2008 season....

Anyway, I like how you only mention that they improved from 13th to 7th without him as a sidenote. And I would think the odds are good that he will imrpove AU's ranking because it would be pretty hard to fuck that up any worse.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: AUChizad on August 03, 2009, 11:03:36 AM
Gee, I wonder why that stat would have plummeted in the 2008 season....

Anyway, I like how you only mention that they improved from 13th to 7th without him as a sidenote. And I would think the odds are good that he will imrpove AU's ranking because it would be pretty hard to fuck that up any worse.
I did mention it. How was it an afterthought? It is the only outlier that doesn't prove him to be a supreme God of offensive coordination. The fact that they continued to improve once McFadden & Jones played a more substantial role does little to deflate this.

I thought Miles was only successful because Saban's Midas touch graced LSU five fucking years ago?
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 12:52:35 PM
I did mention it. How was it an afterthought? It is the only outlier that doesn't prove him to be a supreme God of offensive coordination. The fact that they continued to improve once McFadden & Jones played a more substantial role does little to deflate this.

I thought Miles was only successful because Saban's Midas touch graced LSU five fucking years ago?
So, have you figured out why that stat plummeted in '08 yet?

I'm going to tell you the same sort of thing I told you guys when you proclaimed Dr. Franklinstein your next offensive savior (thanks for the name, Chopper). Oklahoma figured out a way to stomp the piss out of Tulsa. UTEP beat Tulsa. UCF stomped Tulsa, twice in one season. Arkansas beat them. Houston beat Tulsa by 40 points. East Carolina beat Tulsa. You can throw out one guady stat after another, and it still doesn't change the fact that an SEC defense can figure out and defeat Malzahn's offense. Its not that difficult to decipher scheme wise. It relies heavily on tempo, and if things don't go the offense's way, guess what happens? Get a few three-and-outs under your belt against a ball hog offense, and tell me how your defense is feeling at halftime. I promise you, if UTEP can do it, so can Ole Miss. You can argue "better quality of players" all you want. How did that theory work out with Franklin? Alot of you are simply recycling the same rhetoric and cliches for your newest video making, instructional book writing OC.

Regarding LSU, look at the record for the 2005-2007 seasons. Then look at 2008. Look at whose talent was starting 2005-2007. And in 2008? What, is he an exceptional coach and just forgot how to coach? Do I really have to explain this to you?
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: Saniflush on August 03, 2009, 01:02:27 PM
Oklahoma figured out a way to stomp the piss out of Tulsa. UTEP beat Tulsa. UCF stomped Tulsa, twice in one season. Arkansas beat them. Houston beat Tulsa by 40 points. East Carolina beat Tulsa.

Interesting.  What part, if any do you suspect Tulsa not having any defense plays into the equation?
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 01:10:23 PM
Interesting.  What part, if any do you suspect Tulsa not having any defense plays into the equation?
Oklahoma, UCF (twice), Arkansas, and Eastern Carolina all managed to keep Tulsa at 25 points or under. Houston held them to 30 points. UTEP gave up 47 points to them, but UTEP still won. That may be the only game to fit the shootout reasoning you are looking for. But other than that, the other teams that defeated them managed to keep Tulsa to a fairly realistic score. I don't care about Tulsa's defense. Their offense was held is what I'm looking at.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: War Eagle!!! on August 03, 2009, 01:12:19 PM
If Auburn averages 25 points a game this year...I like our chances...
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: wesfau2 on August 03, 2009, 01:20:21 PM
Oklahoma, UCF (twice), Arkansas, and Eastern Carolina all managed to keep Tulsa at 25 points or under. Houston held them to 30 points. UTEP gave up 47 points to them, but UTEP still won. That may be the only game to fit the shootout reasoning you are looking for. But other than that, the other teams that defeated them managed to keep Tulsa to a fairly realistic score. I don't care about Tulsa's defense. Their offense was held is what I'm looking at.

I think if we can average 25+ points per game, we will win most games.  Naked speculation on my part, of course.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 01:25:13 PM
If Auburn averages 25 points a game this year...I like our chances...
I don't see 25 ppg being unrealistic. AU's avg ppg for '08 was 17.3, and it would be pretty difficult for it to be anymore fucked up than last season. I would hope you guys could improve by an average of 1TD per game.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: Saniflush on August 03, 2009, 01:29:25 PM
I don't see 25 ppg being unrealistic. AU's avg ppg for '08 was 17.3, and it would be pretty difficult for it to be anymore fucked up than last season. I would hope you guys could improve by an average of 1TD per game.

I guess that is what I was getting at.  Not discounting the other data but more so that if you average 25-30 points a game in the SEC you are going to be in the hunt to win ballgames.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: War Eagle!!! on August 03, 2009, 01:37:30 PM
I just read that Auburn averaged 11 PPG in the article below about Roof. Maybe that was SEC average PPG. Regardless, if Auburn had scored 7 more points per game, we would have beaten LSU, Vandy, UGA and Arkansas. Auburn lost to Ole Miss by 10 so that would have been close. The only games Auburn was blown out...as absolutely PATHETIC as the offense was, was UA and WVU. And those we late in the year when I think the team had given up...certainly not to discount those games however.

So you win those 4 games, Auburn is now 9-3, playing in a major bowl, and talked about a hell of a lot more this off season.

I stand by my original statement...
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 01:46:26 PM
I guess that is what I was getting at.  Not discounting the other data but more so that if you average 25-30 points a game in the SEC you are going to be in the hunt to win ballgames.
Here is the breakdown from 2008:

1 Florida*       43.64 
2 Mississippi*  32.08 
3 Georgia*      31.46 
4 LSU*          30.92 
5 Alabama*    30.14 
6 Kentucky*   22.62
7 Arkansas    21.92
8 South Carolina*    20.77
9 Vanderbilt*          19.15
10 Auburn     17.33 
10 Tennessee 17.33
12 Mississippi St.   15.25

* = Played more games than the standard 12 game schedule.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 01:51:29 PM
I just read that Auburn averaged 11 PPG in the article below about Roof. Maybe that was SEC average PPG. Regardless, if Auburn had scored 7 more points per game, we would have beaten LSU, Vandy, UGA and Arkansas. Auburn lost to Ole Miss by 10 so that would have been close.
Dude, are you fucking serious? And how long have AU fans been blasting us for "moral victories"? Hey, go add 7 more points per game to our 07 season, and that wins or ties every game we lost. Do the same for our '06 season and we're looking at two losses. '05 would have been a one loss season, but AU only beat us by 10, so that would have been close. '04 is another two loss season. Need I continue?
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: War Eagle!!! on August 03, 2009, 01:51:34 PM
You are better than that, RWS. You can't compares what a offense does over the course of a season, with the stats agains OOC games, and compare it to what a team would score or even average against a defense like Auburn's. Dude, that stat doesn't mean shit in this arguement...
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 01:54:11 PM
You are better than that, RWS. You can't compares what a offense does over the course of a season, with the stats agains OOC games, and compare it to what a team would score or even average against a defense like Auburn's. Dude, that stat doesn't mean shit in this arguement...
Which particular stat are we talking about? Are you drunk posting again?
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: Saniflush on August 03, 2009, 01:54:43 PM
Dude, are you fucking serious? And how long have AU fans been blasting us for "moral victories"? Hey, go add 7 more points per game to our 07 season, and that wins or ties every game we lost. Do the same for our '06 season and we're looking at two losses. '05 would have been a one loss season, but AU only beat us by 10, so that would have been close. '04 is another two loss season. Need I continue?

I don't think he was counting the morale victories. I think he was just using the numbers to illustrate the point that there is a big difference in outcomes with a marginal amount of improvement in PPG.  At least that's how I read it.
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: Snaggletiger on August 03, 2009, 02:30:09 PM
This was basically what I took from the hiring of Franklin.  I thought it was out of left field but if you look back on 2007, it made sense...sort of.  Auburn lost 4 games in 07' and teams had figured Borges out, for whatever reason.  The offense was a struggle all year, to say the least.  There was only one team the entire year that manned up and slapped AU around and that was UGA.  The other 3 losses were to USF, MSU and LSU.  In those losses, AU scored 14, 23 and 24 respectivley and lost by totals of 5, 3 and 6 points. 

If Franklin had come in and been even half way successful, you know that would translate into at least a TD per game.  Not to rehash history or bring up reasons and all that shit.  Suffice it to say that even a little shot in the arm in 07' may have resulted in a 1-loss season and some pretty big things.  I didn't blame CTT for trying, just made the wrong choice(s) 
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: War Eagle!!! on August 03, 2009, 03:56:50 PM
Dude, are you fucking serious? And how long have AU fans been blasting us for "moral victories"? Hey, go add 7 more points per game to our 07 season, and that wins or ties every game we lost. Do the same for our '06 season and we're looking at two losses. '05 would have been a one loss season, but AU only beat us by 10, so that would have been close. '04 is another two loss season. Need I continue?

Yes I am serious. I didn't say anything about a moral victory or we could have won if we would have done this that or the other. You tried to discount the fact that 7 more points per game would help. I let you know that Auburn would have been 9-3 with those ppoints for the games we lost. I don't give a fuck if you add 50 more points a game to your shitty ass team...do what the fuck you want. I am simply responding to your smart ass comment of...

Quote
I don't see 25 ppg being unrealistic. AU's avg ppg for '08 was 17.3, and it would be pretty difficult for it to be anymore fucked up than last season. I would hope you guys could improve by an average of 1TD per game.

The only thing I have said in this thread was...if AUburn scored 7 more points a game, we will be ok. As HB said, the same held true for '08. If Auburn would have had ANY kind of improvement on offense, the record could have been decent. That is all I have said...
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: War Eagle!!! on August 03, 2009, 04:02:59 PM
Which particular stat are we talking about? Are you drunk posting again?

No. I was posting from my black berry and couldn't quote you. I was posting in reference of your scoring stats...these...

Quote
Here is the breakdown from 2008:

1 Florida*       43.64 
2 Mississippi*  32.08 
3 Georgia*      31.46 
4 LSU*          30.92 
5 Alabama*    30.14 
6 Kentucky*   22.62
7 Arkansas    21.92
8 South Carolina*    20.77
9 Vanderbilt*          19.15
10 Auburn     17.33 
10 Tennessee 17.33
12 Mississippi St.   15.25

You are trying to come to the conclussion that averaging 25 points in the SEC won't win shit because all these teams averaged more. My point is that all of these games weren't against a defense the calibers of Auburns.

How long have you known me dude? I get pissed at your arrogant Alabama bullshit, but I have never been a sunshine pumper and have never discounted Alabama for the shit they have done. But, I will call you out on throwing out irrelevant facts. The PPG stat you posted is irrelevant. Period. Matter of fact, I can only name 2 SEC games where Auburn actually scored 17 points, so that shows you the stat average is skewed in comparison to what we are talking about.

I guess I was wrong...you really aren't better than this...
Title: Re: TD-Pass Ratio by StatTiger
Post by: RWS on August 03, 2009, 04:46:58 PM
No. I was posting from my black berry and couldn't quote you. I was posting in reference of your scoring stats...these...

You are trying to come to the conclussion that averaging 25 points in the SEC won't win shit because all these teams averaged more. My point is that all of these games weren't against a defense the calibers of Auburns.

How long have you known me dude? I get pissed at your arrogant Alabama bullshit, but I have never been a sunshine pumper and have never discounted Alabama for the shit they have done. But, I will call you out on throwing out irrelevant facts. The PPG stat you posted is irrelevant. Period. Matter of fact, I can only name 2 SEC games where Auburn actually scored 17 points, so that shows you the stat average is skewed in comparison to what we are talking about.

I guess I was wrong...you really aren't better than this...
I was posting those stats just because I was curious as well. That was posted more so for informational purposes. I wasn't even trying to make an argument with it. I really don't think you can accurately predict a team's success in an upcoming season based on what the league averages for ppg were last season. Here is something I didn't even realize though: In 2007, Alabama scored 29.84 ppg and won 7 games. In 2008, we scored 30.14 ppg and won 12. We're talking about three-tenths of a point difference, and 5 games. Maybe in 2009 AU could score 17 ppg and be fucking 12-0. Who the hell knows?