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Pat Dye Field => Signing Day => Topic started by: JR4AU on January 06, 2012, 01:17:56 PM

Title: The sky is falling...
Post by: JR4AU on January 06, 2012, 01:17:56 PM
So say a couple in a thread on the football board. 

List of uncommitted croots listed on Rivals with "high interest" in Auburrn.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results (http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results)

List of uncommitted who list Auburn with "medium interest".

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results (http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results)

We have 9 slots left to fill, or so I thought.  Bammer, currently shows 26 commits.  I thought we now had a hard 25 limit, no? 

At any rate, there's a significant number of players, and I mean real players, that have been being recruited by a staff that has shown it can land big name croots.  I'm not fucking worried until we only sign 16 on signing day, or if we suddenly fill the class out with 2* players despite the fact that the current 16 has 10 4 * players among them.

Discuss...
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: djsimp on January 06, 2012, 01:22:13 PM
Our needs for the most part are DL and OL. When these guys sign the dotted line, we will be very pleased. I would like to see a few more LB's in this class.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AWK on January 06, 2012, 01:51:16 PM
So say a couple in a thread on the football board. 

List of uncommitted croots listed on Rivals with "high interest" in Auburrn.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results (http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results)

List of uncommitted who list Auburn with "medium interest".

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results (http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results)

We have 9 slots left to fill, or so I thought.  Bammer, currently shows 26 commits.  I thought we now had a hard 25 limit, no? 

At any rate, there's a significant number of players, and I mean real players, that have been being recruited by a staff that has shown it can land big name croots.  I'm not fucking worried until we only sign 16 on signing day, or if we suddenly fill the class out with 2* players despite the fact that the current 16 has 10 4 * players among them.

Discuss...
Both links just take you to the general database.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: JR4AU on January 06, 2012, 02:00:24 PM
Both links just take you to the general database.

Just saw that, don't know how to fix it.

Go here and search Uncommitted/Auburn/Interest level.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search;_ylt=AkBHO2VZIJZRQQf0XEpg7WVGPZB4 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search;_ylt=AkBHO2VZIJZRQQf0XEpg7WVGPZB4)
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AUTiger1 on January 06, 2012, 02:36:28 PM
Yes, you can olny sign 25.  If someone like the Collins kid commits to you, you find him a spot.  Someone loses their offer.  You drop that "project" kid for the sure thing.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Snaggletiger on January 06, 2012, 02:50:02 PM
Yes, you can olny sign 25.  If someone like the Collins kid commits to you, you find him a spot.  Someone loses their offer.  You drop that "project" kid for the sure thing.

The word for today, boys and girls is PROCESS.  Aiight?  It's pronounced (PRAH' - SESS)

In every day language, it's a Lord Saybinism meaning the act of kicking a mofo to the curb when said mofo does not appear to fit in with the Master Race.

Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: JR4AU on January 06, 2012, 02:56:17 PM
Yes, you can olny sign 25.  If someone like the Collins kid commits to you, you find him a spot.  Someone loses their offer.  You drop that "project" kid for the sure thing.

But if Nick is such a great coach, he can just coach 'em up can't he?  But what you're saying is, some poor kid is going to get prawsessed before he ever sets foot on campus?
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AUTiger1 on January 06, 2012, 03:20:36 PM
But if Nick is such a great coach, he can just coach 'em up can't he?  But what you're saying is, some poor kid is going to get prawsessed before he ever sets foot on campus?

I imagine that someone will "decommit" before signing day.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Snaggletiger on January 06, 2012, 03:24:53 PM
I imagine that someone will "decommit" before signing day.

This just in.  Water is wet.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AUTiger1 on January 06, 2012, 03:40:51 PM
This just in.  Water is wet.

No shit?
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: El Guapo on January 06, 2012, 03:43:43 PM
Well 2 probably won't make it due to grades, and you can still back count kids assuming you have the numbers. I believe Alabama has 3 spots open to back count.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AWK on January 06, 2012, 04:36:05 PM
Well 2 probably won't make it due to grades, and you can still back count kids assuming you have the numbers. I believe Alabama has 3 spots open to back count.
Leave it to a bammer to "back count."  That's how you got your 43,298 National Championships. 
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: RWS on January 06, 2012, 09:35:34 PM
But if Nick is such a great coach, he can just coach 'em up can't he? 
Well, he took a few 3* guys and got them drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft not too long ago. That doesn't happen very often though. It's usually your 4 and 5* guys that are going to get drafted. You guys have alot of 4* kids and have recruited well the past few years, so I'm sure you guys will have plenty going highly in the draft in a year or so. Right?
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Vandy Vol on January 06, 2012, 10:22:32 PM
Well, he took a few 3* guys and got them drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft not too long ago. That doesn't happen very often though. It's usually your 4 and 5* guys that are going to get drafted. You guys have alot of 4* kids and have recruited well the past few years, so I'm sure you guys will have plenty going highly in the draft in a year or so. Right?

There was a guy who looked at the ratings for players drafted to the NFL in 2008.  In the first round, five 5 stars, eleven 4 stars, seven 3 stars, and seven 2 stars were drafted (one guy was drafted from the FCS).

In the second round, four 5 stars, ten 4 stars, nine 3 stars, and five 2 stars were drafted (four guys were drafted from the FCS).

So, it's not really that rare to have a 3 star get drafted in the first and second rounds.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: JR4AU on January 06, 2012, 10:31:21 PM
There was a guy who looked at the ratings for players drafted to the NFL in 2008.  In the first round, five 5 stars, eleven 4 stars, seven 3 stars, and seven 2 stars were drafted (one guy was drafted from the FCS).

In the second round, four 5 stars, ten 4 stars, nine 3 stars, and five 2 stars were drafted (four guys were drafted from the FCS).

So, it's not really that rare to have a 3 star get drafted in the first and second rounds.

Break that down in  to percentages of each "star level" and you'll see an undeniable "trend".
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AU_Tiger_2000 on January 10, 2012, 11:19:12 AM
There was a guy who looked at the ratings for players drafted to the NFL in 2008.  In the first round, five 5 stars, eleven 4 stars, seven 3 stars, and seven 2 stars were drafted (one guy was drafted from the FCS).

In the second round, four 5 stars, ten 4 stars, nine 3 stars, and five 2 stars were drafted (four guys were drafted from the FCS).

So, it's not really that rare to have a 3 star get drafted in the first and second rounds.

Makes sense.  After all, according to rivals there are 27 5 star rrecruits nationwide.  There are 64 picks in the first two rounds, you're gonna have a lot of lower ranked guys in there.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: GH2001 on January 10, 2012, 11:47:14 AM
Makes sense.  After all, according to rivals there are 27 5 star rrecruits nationwide.  There are 64 picks in the first two rounds, you're gonna have a lot of lower ranked guys in there.

Thanks for posting that to save me the typing. There are very few 5 stars on Rivals. A lot more 4 stars and even more 3 stars.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Vandy Vol on January 10, 2012, 02:06:56 PM
Makes sense.  After all, according to rivals there are 27 5 star rrecruits nationwide.  There are 64 picks in the first two rounds, you're gonna have a lot of lower ranked guys in there.

Thanks for posting that to save me the typing. There are very few 5 stars on Rivals. A lot more 4 stars and even more 3 stars.

The same guy said that only 1% of Division I-A college players receive 5 stars.  It just makes sense that there will be tons more 2 and 3 stars than there are 4 and 5 stars, so they (2 and 3 stars) are bound to get into the first and second rounds of the draft pretty often.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: DnATL on January 10, 2012, 02:25:20 PM
The same guy said that only 1% of Division I-A college players receive 5 stars.  It just makes sense that there will be tons more 2 and 3 stars than there are 4 and 5 stars, so they (2 and 3 stars) are bound to get into the first and second rounds of the draft pretty often.
Damn one-percenters
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: JR4AU on January 10, 2012, 04:18:40 PM
The same guy said that only 1% of Division I-A college players receive 5 stars.  It just makes sense that there will be tons more 2 and 3 stars than there are 4 and 5 stars, so they (2 and 3 stars) are bound to get into the first and second rounds of the draft pretty often.

5* players are the top 1% relative to their cohorts.  So, they're a small percentage.  In the 2011 NFL draft, however, their were seven 5* players in the first 10 picks, while only 2 were 3*. 

If you look at the NFL draft in that sense, the "star rankings" get it right most of the time. 

On average, in the first 3 rounds of the draft, of the roughly 30 5 Star players coming out of HS, close to half get drafted, of the roughly 300 4* players rougly 10% get drafted, of the 750 3* players only about 4% get drafted, and of the 1700 2* players only about 1% get drafted. 

http://www.athlonsports.com/nfl/nfl-stars (http://www.athlonsports.com/nfl/nfl-stars)
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Vandy Vol on January 10, 2012, 05:49:17 PM
5* players are the top 1% relative to their cohorts.  So, they're a small percentage.  In the 2011 NFL draft, however, their were seven 5* players in the first 10 picks, while only 2 were 3*. 

If you look at the NFL draft in that sense, the "star rankings" get it right most of the time.

If you look at only the first 10 picks, yeah, you're right.  And in general, if you're a 5 star, then you have a very high probability of going in the first or second round, whereas you have less of a probability to do so as a two or three star.

But the particular statement that I was directing those stats was that it's "rare" for a three star to be drafted in the first or second round.  Although the five stars often get picked earlier, it's not uncommon to see just as many if not more two or three stars being drafted in the first or second round.

And sure, if you are a two or three star, your chances at being drafted period go way down.  But nonetheless, the point was that it's not uncommon to see as many or more two and three stars being drafted in the first and second rounds as you do four and five stars.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AUTiger1 on January 10, 2012, 05:53:28 PM
Really though, what does any of this have to do with LED light bulbs?  I need to know.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Vandy Vol on January 10, 2012, 06:14:00 PM
Really though, what does any of this have to do with LED light bulbs?  I need to know.

You know you dig my LED jacket, hater.

(http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2007/12/bogner-ski-suit-led.jpg)
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Buzz Killington on January 10, 2012, 07:14:54 PM
What do the other members of BearForce1 think of it?
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: JR4AU on January 10, 2012, 07:17:50 PM
If you look at only the first 10 picks, yeah, you're right.  And in general, if you're a 5 star, then you have a very high probability of going in the first or second round, whereas you have less of a probability to do so as a two or three star.

But the particular statement that I was directing those stats was that it's "rare" for a three star to be drafted in the first or second round.  Although the five stars often get picked earlier, it's not uncommon to see just as many if not more two or three stars being drafted in the first or second round.

And sure, if you are a two or three star, your chances at being drafted period go way down.  But nonetheless, the point was that it's not uncommon to see as many or more two and three stars being drafted in the first and second rounds as you do four and five stars.

It's not "rare" as it happens every year, but when viewed by percentage, the numbers bear out that the "star rankings" aren't as specious as some think.
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: Vandy Vol on January 10, 2012, 07:18:29 PM
What do the other members of BearForce1 think of it?

They think it's girly, but these guys love it:

(http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqhzn20aWi1qaejwd.jpg)
Title: Re: The sky is falling...
Post by: AUTiger1 on January 10, 2012, 07:58:48 PM
You know you dig my LED jacket, hater.

(http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2007/12/bogner-ski-suit-led.jpg)

I like it, but I bet Garman thinks it's great!