Interesting stuff from a poster over on ITAT:
You can pretty much break down the Malzahn era thus far into 3 phases:
PHASE 1- THE GOOD TIMES (22 games)
This phase started with his very first game at Auburn (a win over Washington State) through the Ole Miss game in 2014. In total, it covered his first 22 games on the Plains. As a whole, Auburn went 19-3 with zero bad losses. The only losses were to 2013 LSU (who finished #14) on the road, 2013 Florida State (who finished #1) in the National Title Game, and 2014 Mississippi State (who finished #11) also on the road. During this phase, Auburn averaged an impressive 500 yards of offense per game at a whopping 6.94 yards/play. On defense, we held opponents to 405 yards per game and 5.72 yards per play. This phase ended following the thrilling 35-31 win over Ole Miss in Oxford back in 2014. That night, #3 Auburn defeated #7 Ole Miss. At the time it seemed Auburn was destined to possibly make another run at the National Title Game. I'm not sure what happened, but the good times ended after that win.
PHASE 2- THE HORRIBLE TIMES (13 games)
This phase lasted 13 games spread over portions of two seasons. It began with the inexplicable loss to an average Texas A&M team in Jordan Hare in 2014. During this phase, Auburn would compile a horrific 5-8 overall record. The defense worsened a bit from the previous phase. During phase 2 of the Gus era, the defense gave up 441 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The offensive production plummeted though. On offense, Auburn averaged just 407 yards per game and 5.72 yards per play. This was a drop of 92 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play compared to Phase 1 of the Gus era.
PHASE 3- THE IMPROVEMENT (11 games and counting)
While some might disagree with when this phase begun, I actually think it began last season when Auburn traveled to College Station. Sure, there have been some frustrating moments since this game, but to me this is when we could begin to see improvement. Let's just saw we began rising up from rock bottom. During phase 3 of the Malzahn era, Auburn has just a 7-4 overall record. However, none of the losses have been particularly embarrassing. The four losses came against 2015 Alabama (finished #1), 2015 Georgia by just 7 points (finished #26... just outside the final Top 25), 2016 Clemson (currently #4), and 2016 Texas A&M (currently #6). During this improvement phase, Auburn has lost most all of the "big" games, but we've actually been fairly competitive in each of them. None were blowouts. The offensive production is up slightly... up 21 yards per game to 429 yards on average. But its been the defense that has played the best of any phase during the Gus era. During phase 3, the defense is giving up just 343 yards per game and 4.87 yards/play.
If Auburn has very impressive wins these next two weeks, I think its possible that a new phase begun with the win in September over LSU. It's too early to tell. If so, then we are actually three games into Phase 4 and we've got a second "Good Times" phase on our hand. We'll know soon enough. But this "Improvement Phase" is remarkably better than the bad phase we came out of. That is evidenced in the statistical margins against our opponents:
PHASE 1- Auburn outgained opponents by by 95 yards per game and 1.22 yards per play
PHASE 2- Auburn was outgained by our opponents by 34 yards per game and 0.25 yards per play
PHASE 3- Auburn has outained our opponents by 86 yards per game and 0.94 yards per play
Lastly, it seems the Texas A&M game has become a pivotal game for Auburn each season. More than just a game, it seems to be a momentum shifter for the program.
2012- This was the season Johhny Manziel put up 63 points on Auburn. This was the nail in the coffin for the Chizik era, as the fans and the players both seemed to quit during this game.
2013- This was 7 games into the "Good" phase of the Malzahn era, but winning against Manziel in College Station is what kicked the good phase into overdrive. It's when Auburn went from good to great.
2014- This was Game 1 of the "Horrible" phase of the Malzahn era. The loss to Texas A&M at home sent Auburn down a terrible 13-game path
2015- This was Game 1 of the "Improvement" phase. This is when it was evident we had hit rock bottom. This win signaled we were on our way back towards improvement.
2016- If Auburn goes on to finish the year strong... say win out except for the Iron Bowl (realistically speaking), I think the A&M game will mark the close of the "improvement" stage, and all games after will be another "good" phase.
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