CFN Picks the AU - Piggy Game

[Tiger Wench]

GAME OF THE WEEK

Arkansas (4-1) at Auburn (6-0) Oct. 16, 3:30, CBS

Here’s The Deal … And now there’s a crack in the door. Let’s be honest here and get past all the rhetoric; Alabama just doesn’t look that great. Oh sure, this is a fantastic team, but it’s not the be-all-end-all many made it out to be at the beginning of the year. The running game was stopped by South Carolina last week, and the team as a whole was shaky in the near-miss against Arkansas. There’s a good chance that wasn’t Bama’s last gaffe, and Arkansas and Auburn have to keep winning, with the Tigers getting a chance in the regular-season finale, to keep hanging around to hopefully be there in the end. For the Hogs, the SEC season is basically over with a loss, but for Auburn, the spotlight is on for even more than just the West.

With next week’s LSU showdown in Jordan-Hare, and eight of the first 11 games at home, with only Ole Miss to go before the date with Bama, the Tigers have as manageable a schedule as can be asked for. Considering Georgia stinks and the Rebels are inconsistent, if Auburn can get through the next two weeks with wins, it’ll almost certainly be 11-0 with the national title on the plate before going to Tuscaloosa. The defense is hardly playing at a championship level, but the offense, helped by a Heisman-caliber season from Cam Newton, has been fantastic, physical, and clutch. It’ll have to be playing at a higher level to get past the high-powered Hogs.

Arkansas has won three of the last four games in the series, and while it pushed Alabama in a loss and got past Texas A&M and won at Georgia, this has been a good year, but not a great one … yet. Ryan Mallett is a special passer who can win games by himself, but for all the talent on offense and the solid production so far on defense, it would be nice to get a signature win to get everyone fired up. Georgia and Texas A&M are mediocre, but Auburn isn’t, and a win, with Ole Miss and Vanderbilt up next before going to South Carolina, would change around the SEC season and would be a program-changer.

Why Arkansas Might Win: Auburn’s run defense … good. Auburn’s pass defense … not good. There’s decent pressure generated from the front to get pressure on the passer, but the secondary has given up too many yards, allowing 305 yards and three touchdowns to South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia and Connor Shaw, and allowing Kentucky’s Mike Hartline completed 23-of-28 passes for 220 yards and a score. No, the Tiger defensive backs haven’t been totally miserable, but they have yet to face an elite quarterback like Mallett and they’re about to get pressed. Defensively, Arkansas has done a fantastic job of getting into the backfield on a regular basis and has the potential to get to Cam Newton before he can get started. How do you stop the Auburn ground game? Stop it behind the line, and the Hogs are fourth in the nation in sacks and 15th in tackles for loss.

Why Auburn Might Win: Arkansas has played one team that can run, Alabama, and Mark Ingram ripped off 157 yards and two scores and Trent Richardson ran for 85. Texas A&M’s Christine Michael had ran for an effective 79 yards last week. Arkansas might be great at getting into the backfield, but it has to deal with the red-hot three-headed monster of Newton, Onterrio McCalebb, and Michael Dyer, who can combine forces to keep the chains moving and keep Mallett off the field. The Tigers aren’t just about running the ball with Newton ranking second in the nation in passing efficiency, taking advantage of the single coverage with the safeties cheating up way too much to worrying about the run. Defensively, Auburn should be able to generate decent pressure on Mallett, who’ll force throws that aren’t there when rushed. Alabama had to manufacture pressure, and it worked. Georgia couldn’t get to him, and Texas A&M didn’t get to him nearly enough.

What To Watch Out For: After spending last year as a key back up and a spot starter, 6-5, 298-pound junior Nick Fairley is now dominating on the inside of the Auburn defensive front. While he’s not necessarily built for the position, he’s an athletic interior pass rusher who was dominant at the JUCO level and is putting together a special, All-America caliber season with five sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. He destroyed Clemson and was solid last week against Kentucky, and if he can get a push up the gut and make Mallett move, Arkansas will be in trouble.

What Will Happen: Mallett threw for 274 yards and two touchdowns with an interception last year in the Hogs’ win over Auburn. If he does that again, they’ll lose. The Tiger running game will overcome a big day from Mallett, but it’s going to be a fight until the final drive. Mallett will have the ball in his hands with a chance to march for the win, but his final throw into the end zone will get batted away.

CFN Prediction: Auburn 26 … Arkansas 20 … Line: Auburn -4

Must See Rating: Jackass 3D – 5 … The Promise: The Making of Darkness on the Edge of Town -1 … 4

[djsimp]

That pretty much sum it up. There has been a lot of talk about this game all week and pretty much has all been the same. We have to put pressure on Mallet. No way in hell can we just let him sit back there and pick us apart all night because that will be bad for us. He will get his yards but we have to get pressure on him and force some mistakes. I can see the Hogs getting some tackles behind the line of scrimmage but in way can they pin their ears back on us, they will get beat that way. Newton will get his yardage as well but I'm sure the Hogs will cheat up to the line of scrimmage and try and force Newton to pass. I hope they do, Gus likes the big play.

[AuburnChopper 3.0]

This will be a lot like the Clemson and South Carolina games in my opinion.  Mallet is good, and I believe that he'll pick us apart with the outside passes to the flats and the quick slants creating matchups downfield we can't stop on occassion.  So, they'll score plenty, and probably first if they get the ball first.  It'll take a little bit to get adjusted to playing that early after all the other games being at night previously.

However, I don't think they'll stop Cam, and more than that, Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery.  I think this is their breakout game that changes the way AU's passing game is viewed before LSU next week.  I think Arkansas will key on Cam Newton, but our overlooked receiving corp will get it done. 

I still like Auburn in a high blood pressure last drive sort of game.

[AUChizad]

Wait...we're worried about the passing game?

I thought Arkansas had 5 running backs better than Dyer?

[AUTiger1]

This game scares the shit out of me.  It's huge.  If we win, I think this will be one special season.  As in undefeated/one loss special.  If we lose, I wouldn't be shocked to see us drop LSU/bammer and possibly one to either The rebel black bears or UGA. 

No  , just calling it like I see it.

[djsimp]

I still like Auburn in a high blood pressure last drive sort of game.

This is what I'm thinking. Lots of beer. Smok'em if you got'em.