Auburn (5-0) at Kentucky (3-2) Oct. 9, 7:30, ESPN2
Here’s The Deal … It was one of the SEC’s most lopsided rivalries. Kentucky had been flattened 15 times in a row with the last win over Auburn coming in 1966, and then came last season’s 21-14 stunner on the Plains to take a great Tiger season and turn it upside down. Auburn had lost to Arkansas the week before, but UK was the sure-thing, rebound game that turned out to be anything but. The stakes are even higher this year as the unbeaten Tigers not only have the record, but they have the schedule to be deep in the SEC title chase, which means they’re in the national title hunt, and they have an emerging superstar in quarterback Cam Newton, who’d be the story of the 2010 season so far if it wasn’t for that guy with the shoelace problem up in Ann Arbor. With home games against Arkansas and LSU up next, and with South Carolina and Mississippi State in the rearview mirror, this is a dangerous road test for Gene Chizik’s club to see if the shaky defense can handle the Wildcat veterans, and if the offense can get working away from home after scoring 17 points in the lone road trip (Mississippi State). Kentucky isn’t bad, but two straight tough road losses to Florida and Ole Miss killed the early season buzz. With this game kicking off a three-game home run, if the Cats want to make a move and get back into the SEC fun, it has to happen now.
Why Auburn Might Win: A funny thing happens when you start playing better teams; things don’t work quite as well. Kentucky’s ground game dominated over the first three games with 200 yards or more against Louisville, Western Kentucky, and Akron, with 11 rushing scores, and then came the date with Florida: 99 yards. Ole Miss: 124 yards. Auburn’s pass defense has been picked apart a bit too much, but the run defense has been terrific holding South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore to just 33 yards while allowing just 92.8 yards per game. Offensively, Auburn leads the nation in passing efficiency, with a home-run hitting attack balancing out the phenomenal rushing game, and UK doesn’t have the defense to stop everything the Tiger O can do.
Why Kentucky Might Win: UK has the weapons to keep up. Derrick Locke is running as well as any back in the SEC, Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews provide a nice 1-2 receiving punch, and Mike Hartline is coming up with a nice season moving the chains well and spreading the ball around. The Cats can’t stop the Tigers on a regular basis, the linebacking corps just isn’t good enough, but the offense has to get creative, be balanced, and put points on the board drive after drive after drive. The Florida game was a flop, but that was the one big clunker for an attack that’s averaging 453.6 yards and 36.4 points per game. The offensive line has been a key, coming up with a great start to the season, and with the relatively immobile Hartline needing time to operate, he’ll get it even though the Tigers have a nice pass rush.
What To Watch Out For: Danny Travathan, you’re up. The UK linebacking corps isn’t great, but the junior is a guided missile of a hitter who needs to be special and keep Newton and the Tiger ground game from tearing off big runs in chunks. Extremely fast and always around the ball, he came up with his best game of 2009 against Auburn with ten tackles, nine solo stops, and he’s coming off his best game of the year making 15 tackles against Ole Miss. If he’s not making at least ten tackles, the Cat defense will be in huge trouble.
What Will Happen: Kentucky will do its part to keep up the fight, but Auburn will be too good on the ground as the game goes on. Newton will be Newton getting his 100 rushing yards, but he’ll also throw a few key interceptions to keep the Cats in the game. Just when it seems like UK is about to come up with something special, Auburn will go on a long, brutal drive finishing up with a backbreaking fourth quarter score to put the game away.
CFN Prediction: Auburn 38 … Kentucky 30 … Line: Auburn -6
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